2026–27 forecast · Updated
The best publicly available win projections
Projected wins and playoff odds for every NBA team.
Preseason predictionsRangeRange of outcomesEvery simulated season for this team. The bright middle is where 80% of seasons land; the dot is the projection.ProjectionThe dot marks the projected wins.Pick a team for its outlook
Tap a team for its outlook#Projected finish across the league, ordered by projected wins.TeamClick a team to open its full outlook: odds, range of outcomes, team profile and rotation.ShotEV PDSeason margin with both teams’ shooting luck adjusted using shot locations and shooter data, per 48 non-garbage minutes. Not opponent-adjusted.Prior PDPreseason player projections updated with predictive EPM changes, weighted by remaining minutes. Predicted margin per 48 minutes before team adjustment.WinsWins already earned plus expected wins in the remaining schedule. The curves show simulated final records.±SDHow far a typical season lands from the projection, in wins (one standard deviation). Bigger means a wider range.PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
#Projected finish across the league, ordered by projected wins.TeamClick a team to open its full outlook: odds, range of outcomes, team profile and rotation.ShotEV PDSeason margin with both teams’ shooting luck adjusted using shot locations and shooter data, per 48 non-garbage minutes. Not opponent-adjusted.Prior PDPreseason player projections updated with predictive EPM changes, weighted by remaining minutes. Predicted margin per 48 minutes before team adjustment.RangeEvery simulated season for this team. The bright middle is where 80% of seasons land; the dot is the projection.WinsWins already earned plus expected wins in the remaining schedule. The curves show simulated final records.±SDHow far a typical season lands from the projection, in wins (one standard deviation). Bigger means a wider range.PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 1Boston Celtics: 57.2 projected wins, plus or minus 6.2; season ShotEV PD +6.9 per 48 minutes; prior PD +7.2 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 49 to 65 wins; 99% playoff odds
Celtics2027 lottery balls: 0.020.02 expected lottery balls. Own pick. Average origin weights: BOS 0.02.Boston · 4–1 · Atlantic+6.9ShotEV PD+7.2Prior PD57.2±6.299% - 2Houston Rockets: 55.5 projected wins, plus or minus 6.3; season ShotEV PD +7.8 per 48 minutes; prior PD +5.0 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 47 to 63 wins; 98% playoff odds
Rockets2027 lottery balls: 4.174.17 expected lottery balls. PHX unprotected, plus better of HOU/BKN. Average origin weights: BKN 2.38, HOU 0.02, PHX 1.77.Houston · 6–1 · Southwest+7.8ShotEV PD+5.0Prior PD55.5±6.398% - 3San Antonio Spurs: 54.4 projected wins, plus or minus 6.4; season ShotEV PD +12.8 per 48 minutes; prior PD +5.3 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 46 to 62 wins; 97% playoff odds
Spurs2027 lottery balls: 0.770.77 expected lottery balls. ATL unprotected; own goes to SAC if top 16, otherwise OKC. Average origin weights: ATL 0.77.San Antonio · 4–2 · Southwest+12.8ShotEV PD+5.3Prior PD54.4±6.497% - 4Oklahoma City Thunder: 53.3 projected wins, plus or minus 6.5; season ShotEV PD +4.2 per 48 minutes; prior PD +5.3 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 45 to 62 wins; 96% playoff odds
Thunder2027 lottery balls: 2.932.93 expected lottery balls. Best two of OKC/LAC/DEN if DEN is outside top 5; otherwise best of OKC/LAC. Average origin weights: DEN 0.42, LAC 2.41, OKC 0.09.Oklahoma City · 4–2 · Northwest+4.2ShotEV PD+5.3Prior PD53.3±6.596% - 5Detroit Pistons: 48.2 projected wins, plus or minus 6.6; season ShotEV PD +2.6 per 48 minutes; prior PD +2.0 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 39 to 57 wins; 86% playoff odds
Pistons2027 lottery balls: 0.360.36 expected lottery balls. Own pick. Average origin weights: DET 0.36.Detroit · 5–1 · Central+2.6ShotEV PD+2.0Prior PD48.2±6.686% - 6Toronto Raptors: 47.6 projected wins, plus or minus 6.8; season ShotEV PD +9.4 per 48 minutes; prior PD +2.4 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 39 to 56 wins; 86% playoff odds
Raptors2027 lottery balls: 00 expected lottery balls. Worst of TOR/OKC/LAC/DEN (DEN excluded if top 5).Toronto · 3–2 · Atlantic+9.4ShotEV PD+2.4Prior PD47.6±6.886% - 7Portland Trail Blazers: 47.2 projected wins, plus or minus 7.4; season ShotEV PD +11.3 per 48 minutes; prior PD +1.5 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 37 to 57 wins; 81% playoff odds
Trail Blazers2027 lottery balls: 0.520.52 expected lottery balls. Own pick. Average origin weights: POR 0.52.Portland · 4–1 · Northwest+11.3ShotEV PD+1.5Prior PD47.2±7.481% - 8New York Knicks: 46.5 projected wins, plus or minus 6.6; season ShotEV PD +6.4 per 48 minutes; prior PD +2.1 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 38 to 55 wins; 83% playoff odds
Knicks2027 lottery balls: 00 expected lottery balls. Own pick goes to BKN.New York · 2–4 · Atlantic+6.4ShotEV PD+2.1Prior PD46.5±6.683% - 9Denver Nuggets: 45.6 projected wins, plus or minus 6.8; season ShotEV PD −3.6 per 48 minutes; prior PD +2.4 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 37 to 54 wins; 76% playoff odds
Nuggets2027 lottery balls: 0.210.21 expected lottery balls. Own if top 5; otherwise enters OKC/LAC/DEN swap chain. Average origin weights: DEN 0.21.Denver · 3–2 · Northwest−3.6ShotEV PD+2.4Prior PD45.6±6.876% - 10Atlanta Hawks: 44.2 projected wins, plus or minus 6.6; season ShotEV PD +2.2 per 48 minutes; prior PD +1.0 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 35 to 52 wins; 72% playoff odds
Hawks2027 lottery balls: 1.951.95 expected lottery balls. Worse of NOP/MIL, unless that pick is top 4; own pick goes to SAS. Average origin weights: MIL 0.94, NOP 1.01.Atlanta · 3–4 · Southeast+2.2ShotEV PD+1.0Prior PD44.2±6.672% - 11Cleveland Cavaliers: 44.2 projected wins, plus or minus 6.8; season ShotEV PD +3.9 per 48 minutes; prior PD +0.8 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 35 to 53 wins; 71% playoff odds
Cavaliers2027 lottery balls: 00 expected lottery balls. Own enters the UTA/CLE/MIN best-pick swap chain.Cleveland · 4–2 · Central+3.9ShotEV PD+0.8Prior PD44.2±6.871% - 12Minnesota Timberwolves: 43.9 projected wins, plus or minus 6.8; season ShotEV PD +2.8 per 48 minutes; prior PD +0.5 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 35 to 53 wins; 70% playoff odds
Timberwolves2027 lottery balls: 00 expected lottery balls. Own enters the UTA/CLE/MIN best-pick swap chain.Minnesota · 4–3 · Northwest+2.8ShotEV PD+0.5Prior PD43.9±6.870% - 13Philadelphia 76ers: 43.0 projected wins, plus or minus 6.8; season ShotEV PD −2.3 per 48 minutes; prior PD +0.4 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 34 to 52 wins; 64% playoff odds
76ers2027 lottery balls: 0.950.95 expected lottery balls. Own pick. Average origin weights: PHI 0.95.Philadelphia · 6–1 · Atlantic−2.3ShotEV PD+0.4Prior PD43.0±6.864% - 14Los Angeles Lakers: 42.5 projected wins, plus or minus 6.8; season ShotEV PD +8.4 per 48 minutes; prior PD −0.6 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 34 to 51 wins; 61% playoff odds
Lakers2027 lottery balls: 0.290.29 expected lottery balls. Own if top 4; otherwise MEM. Average origin weights: LAL 0.29.Los Angeles · 4–2 · Pacific+8.4ShotEV PD−0.6Prior PD42.5±6.861% - 15Golden State Warriors: 42.1 projected wins, plus or minus 6.5; season ShotEV PD −0.8 per 48 minutes; prior PD −0.1 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 34 to 50 wins; 61% playoff odds
Warriors2027 lottery balls: 1.081.08 expected lottery balls. Own pick. Average origin weights: GSW 1.08.Golden State · 3–3 · Pacific−0.8ShotEV PD−0.1Prior PD42.1±6.561% - 16Miami Heat: 41.9 projected wins, plus or minus 6.9; season ShotEV PD +4.8 per 48 minutes; prior PD +0.4 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 33 to 51 wins; 59% playoff odds
Heat2027 lottery balls: 0.970.97 expected lottery balls. Own if top 14; otherwise CHA. Average origin weights: MIA 0.97.Miami · 2–4 · Southeast+4.8ShotEV PD+0.4Prior PD41.9±6.959% - 17Memphis Grizzlies: 41.5 projected wins, plus or minus 6.9; season ShotEV PD +3.9 per 48 minutes; prior PD −1.5 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 33 to 51 wins; 54% playoff odds
Grizzlies2027 lottery balls: 4.344.34 expected lottery balls. Own; best of UTA/CLE/MIN; LAL if 5–30. Average origin weights: CLE 0.45, LAL 0.75, MEM 1.22, MIN 0.50, UTA 1.42.Memphis · 6–0 · Southwest+3.9ShotEV PD−1.5Prior PD41.5±6.954% - 18Indiana Pacers: 41.1 projected wins, plus or minus 6.8; season ShotEV PD +2.9 per 48 minutes; prior PD 0.0 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 32 to 50 wins; 56% playoff odds
Pacers2027 lottery balls: 1.231.23 expected lottery balls. Own pick. Average origin weights: IND 1.23.Indiana · 2–4 · Central+2.9ShotEV PD0.0Prior PD41.1±6.856% - 19Orlando Magic: 39.9 projected wins, plus or minus 7.4; season ShotEV PD −9.2 per 48 minutes; prior PD +0.3 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 31 to 50 wins; 49% playoff odds
Magic2027 lottery balls: 1.391.39 expected lottery balls. Own pick. Average origin weights: ORL 1.39.Orlando · 2–3 · Southeast−9.2ShotEV PD+0.3Prior PD39.9±7.449% - 20Charlotte Hornets: 38.6 projected wins, plus or minus 6.6; season ShotEV PD +1.5 per 48 minutes; prior PD −1.4 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 30 to 47 wins; 41% playoff odds
Hornets2027 lottery balls: 3.333.33 expected lottery balls. Own; DAL if 3–30; MIA if 15–30. Average origin weights: CHA 1.63, DAL 1.56, MIA 0.14.Charlotte · 3–4 · Southeast+1.5ShotEV PD−1.4Prior PD38.6±6.641% - 21Phoenix Suns: 37.8 projected wins, plus or minus 6.8; season ShotEV PD −2.8 per 48 minutes; prior PD −1.4 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 29 to 47 wins; 36% playoff odds
Suns2027 lottery balls: 0.30.3 expected lottery balls. Worst of UTA/CLE/MIN; own pick goes to HOU. Average origin weights: CLE 0.08, MIN 0.08, UTA 0.14.Phoenix · 1–3 · Pacific−2.8ShotEV PD−1.4Prior PD37.8±6.836% - 22Dallas Mavericks: 36.9 projected wins, plus or minus 7.3; season ShotEV PD −11.1 per 48 minutes; prior PD −2.3 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 27 to 46 wins; 32% playoff odds
Mavericks2027 lottery balls: 0.280.28 expected lottery balls. Own if top 2; otherwise CHA. Average origin weights: DAL 0.28.Dallas · 4–2 · Southwest−11.1ShotEV PD−2.3Prior PD36.9±7.332% - 23New Orleans Pelicans: 33.1 projected wins, plus or minus 7.1; season ShotEV PD −1.2 per 48 minutes; prior PD −3.4 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 24 to 42 wins; 17% playoff odds
Pelicans2027 lottery balls: 2.652.65 expected lottery balls. Better of NOP/MIL; both if the worse pick is top 4. Average origin weights: MIL 1.43, NOP 1.22.New Orleans · 2–4 · Southwest−1.2ShotEV PD−3.4Prior PD33.1±7.117% - 24Chicago Bulls: 32.5 projected wins, plus or minus 7.3; season ShotEV PD −7.5 per 48 minutes; prior PD −3.1 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 23 to 42 wins; 16% playoff odds
Bulls2027 lottery balls: 2.242.24 expected lottery balls. Own pick. Average origin weights: CHI 2.24.Chicago · 1–5 · Central−7.5ShotEV PD−3.1Prior PD32.5±7.316% - 25Utah Jazz: 31.4 projected wins, plus or minus 6.8; season ShotEV PD −4.7 per 48 minutes; prior PD −3.7 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 23 to 40 wins; 11% playoff odds
Jazz2027 lottery balls: 1.341.34 expected lottery balls. Middle of UTA/CLE/MIN; Utah-origin pick cannot enter top 5. Average origin weights: CLE 0.26, MIN 0.26, UTA 0.82.Utah · 1–5 · Northwest−4.7ShotEV PD−3.7Prior PD31.4±6.811% - 26Washington Wizards: 30.9 projected wins, plus or minus 6.7; season ShotEV PD +0.3 per 48 minutes; prior PD −5.3 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 22 to 40 wins; 9% playoff odds
Wizards2027 lottery balls: 2.382.38 expected lottery balls. Own pick; Washington-origin pick cannot be No. 1. Average origin weights: WAS 2.38.Washington · 3–3 · Southeast+0.3ShotEV PD−5.3Prior PD30.9±6.79% - 27LA Clippers: 30.4 projected wins, plus or minus 6.6; season ShotEV PD −11.8 per 48 minutes; prior PD −3.9 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 22 to 39 wins; 8% playoff odds
Clippers2027 lottery balls: 0.420.42 expected lottery balls. Better of TOR and the remainder after OKC's best-pick rights. Average origin weights: DEN 0.01, OKC 0.01, TOR 0.40.LA · 1–4 · Pacific−11.8ShotEV PD−3.9Prior PD30.4±6.68% - 28Brooklyn Nets: 27.5 projected wins, plus or minus 6.4; season ShotEV PD −12.9 per 48 minutes; prior PD −4.6 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 19 to 36 wins; 4% playoff odds
Nets2027 lottery balls: 0.530.53 expected lottery balls. NYK unprotected, plus worse of BKN/HOU. Average origin weights: BKN 0.03, HOU 0.03, NYK 0.47.Brooklyn · 0–5 · Atlantic−12.9ShotEV PD−4.6Prior PD27.5±6.44% - 29Milwaukee Bucks: 27.3 projected wins, plus or minus 6.9; season ShotEV PD −11.1 per 48 minutes; prior PD −4.9 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 19 to 36 wins; 5% playoff odds
Bucks2027 lottery balls: 00 expected lottery balls. Own enters NOP/MIL swap chain.Milwaukee · 1–5 · Central−11.1ShotEV PD−4.9Prior PD27.3±6.95% - 30Sacramento Kings: 23.8 projected wins, plus or minus 6.2; season ShotEV PD −17.8 per 48 minutes; prior PD −5.7 per 48 minutes; middle 80% 16 to 32 wins; 1% playoff odds
Kings2027 lottery balls: 2.362.36 expected lottery balls. Own; SAS if top 16. Average origin weights: SAC 2.29, SAS 0.07.Sacramento · 0–6 · Pacific−17.8ShotEV PD−5.7Prior PD23.8±6.21%
From the blog
All posts →
4 min read
Cling Kong
When I was looking at a list of potential ‘most improved player’ candidates, I stumbled across a season that’s being overlooked.
Get new posts by email
Every new post, in your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe any time.