Failing Up

In light of the [insert any superlative you want here] trade in NBA history, I’ve been bombarded with “what the hell happened?” messages. So, I figured I’d write a quick primer on what the hell did, in fact, happen. [1]

To start, we need to establish just how good Luka Dončić (25) and Anthony Davis (31) are.

DARKO and EPM are the two most respected publicly available player projection models. The easiest way for someone unfamiliar with one-number metrics to gauge their credibility is to simply look at the top players in each and see if those rankings pass the smell test. That doesn’t mean these metrics are infallible, but it strongly suggests they’re on the right track.

So, we’ll go with this: Luka Dončić is approximately a +6 player, and Anthony Davis is approximately a +4 player. That seems fair. In plain English, Doncic is a perennial MVP candidate, and Davis is a perennial All-NBA player.

Since Dončić and Davis are in very different phases of their careers, and DARKO projections show career trajectory, let’s take a look at an aging curve. This one is from over a decade ago, but the rough shape is all that matters.

As you can see, Luka is a +6 player who might still be improving, while Davis is a +4 player who’s probably just about to fall off a cliff.

Now, let’s take a quick intermission for the oopsies portion of the program to address the elephant in the room: the guy who’s about to get obliterated for probably the worst trade since Trae Young and a first were dealt for Luka Dončić (before Nico Harrison was with the Mavs).

You’ve probably seen this quip about how bad Nico Harrison was at his job at Nike. I mean, it’s on Wikipedia, so it must be true:

“During his work at Nike, he botched a 2013 presentation to Stephen Curry, where according to Harrison he may have called him Seth, and the presentation used was made for Kevin Durant. This, along with not offering Curry a signature shoe, caused the superstar to switch from Nike and sign with Under Armour.[4]”

The name mix-up is one thing, but using KD’s presentation? That seems like an immediate firing offense, and the fact that he somehow ended up running an NBA franchise makes me think he knows where the bodies are buried. I know life operates more on cronyism than meritocracy, but even that seems like a bridge too far.

OK, back to our regularly scheduled “analysis.”

How can we quantify the difference between a +6 and +4 player over the next few years? Well, it’s about the same as the difference between a good starter like De’Aaron Fox and a league-average starter like Coby White. In the NBA, it’s nearly impossible to make up that kind of surplus value in one max salary slot, which is why players of this caliber are essentially never traded. Instead, they’re typically held onto far past their prime. Then overpaid. Then they get a statue outside the arena. [2]

In the interest of full disclosure, I should mention that an unprotected 2029 first-round pick is heading from Los Angeles to Dallas in the deal. That pick could be valuable, given how awful the Lakers’ roster is outside of Luka and LeBron (40!). But realistically, Luka Dončić, cap space, and sunshine should be good for 45 wins a year for the foreseeable future. And while there isn’t much room for the Lakers to improve outside of this trade, Anthony Davis, cap space, and sunshine was more like a 35-win team.

So that’s it. A story of failing upwards—for both Nico Harrison and the Los Angeles Lakers.

[1] Spoiler alert: there was probably some crazy shit that went down behind the scenes, possibly related to sweet tea consumption, but since this blog doesn’t know anyone in the Mavs or Lakers organization, I’ll have to deal with exclusively publicly available information.

[2]