High IQ

So much of what we learn about the extent of an NBA player’s ability is driven by opportunity. Steph Curry freed from the shackles of Monta Ellis. Nikola Jokic no longer sharing a front court with Jusuf Nurkic. Most recently, Tyrese Haliburton leading the league in assists after his trade to Indiana. Perhaps most notably for this article, Linsanity.

Every year there are many such players in the NBA, but this year one sticks out above the rest. Immanuel Quickley’s ability has been overshadowed by the coaching of Tom Thibodeau, the signing of Jalen Brunson, and the play style of Julius Randle.

The most overrated ‘type’ [1] of NBA player is the undersized shooting guard. They score points, but they don't scale well to the playoffs because they aren’t quite good enough at distributing and defending. The classic example of this mold has always been Lou Williams, though his foul drawing meant that the juice was often worth the squeeze (at least in the regular season)[2]. In this mold we have three young guards that are nearly the same age, recently got lucrative extensions, and seem destined to frequently be compared to each other: Tyler Herro, Jordan Poole, and Anfernee Simons.

But hiding in an Empire State building sized shadow is Immanuel Quickley. He not only may be better than all 3, but breaks the undersized gunner mold with superior passing and defense.

Here’s an age 22 (last season) comparison between the four players. I chose to use last year’s numbers because it’s more of an apples to apples comparison; this year Quickley’s usage has been depressed further by the arrival of Brunson. Herro has improved, Poole has declined, but largely these numbers look similar this year, sans Quickley’s volume.

You don’t need to study the table, a comparison between all of them will result in you thinking these players are quite similar.

The first takeaway I have is that it’s obvious Quickley is the superior passer, with both the highest AST% and lowest TO% of the bunch. The second is that it’s worth wondering whether Quickley can maintain efficiency at the higher usage that Herro, Poole, and Simons have. My bet is that he could: over the last two seasons in 1500 minutes without Randle or Brunson Quickley has 54.7 TS% on 24.7 USG% with 27.7 AST% and 9.3 TO%. His numbers in an increased role are on par or improved with a particularly impressive AST:TO ratio.

So he’s been able to scale his modest efficiency in larger role with even better distribution. There are sample size issues here, but I think any worry about him playing against backups is overblown: ⅔ of these minutes come with at least two opposing starters on the floor, where his numbers are the same. That argument didn’t hold water when dissenters didn’t think it was worth trading for James Harden a decade ago, and it doesn’t hold water here.

But offense is only half (probably more like ⅔!) of the battle.

And the other half is the Battle of Alesia [3], where Quickley is the only one to post a positive defensive season in BPM, EPM, or RAPTOR (with multiple in each!). The others’ defensive advanced stats rank between regular bad and Trae Young bad.

I abide by a “where there’s smoke there’s fire” rule when considering how good of a defender someone is. Check advanced stats, watch highlights on NBA twitter, and try to watch them closely in a midweek game in January against a .500 team. If those sources agree, I have at least some level of confidence in my opinion.

Now I’m certainly not claiming guard defense matters much, but in the playoffs there is a marked difference between the five alarm fire that happens when Jordan Poole gets put in a screening action, and the impressive resilience with which Steph Curry holds up with when faced with similar scrutiny. Quickley’s ability to be in the latter category is going to win his team some regular season games and may be the difference between a win and a loss in a playoff series when the chips are down.

This is a clip you may have seen from earlier in the year on Jamal Murray. Active hands, choppy steps, and not biting on the pump fake: the entire possession is defensive nirvana.

The effort is consistent. Here he topside’s both screens and seamlessly switches onto Pascal Siakam. Active hands, choppy steps, high effort closeout: he’s a one man defense![4]

And even in January against Indiana he’ll navigate multiple screens, stay attached, and force a turnover.

But the real reason I got motivated enough to write this blog is last weekend when R.J. Barrett was a late scratch and Quickley drew the primary defensive assignment on James Harden. In the Knicks 109-98 come from behind victory Harden ended just 4-11 for 12 points. I am certainly not proclaiming him a Harden stopper, and given that this was a Sunday early evening game that title may belong to the quality of adult entertainment in Manhattan, but in a role he isn’t suited for the result was impressive. That’s largely due to efforts like the first play of the game.

He understands angles, maintains good effort, and has great hands. He'll also fight for rebounds [5]. And that's why it doesn't even matter if he can't scale more usage or increase efficiency. The marginal value you get from the extra usage is wasted when this type of player isn't good enough at creation and defense to stay on the court when it matters (see Poole, Jordan, circa 2022 playoffs).

It’s all part of an impressive and versatile skillset that has allowed him to post 90th percentile on/off splits each season of his career: +8.1, +12.2, +8.9 per CtG, despite playing with a very diverse set of lineups. The package is there but the opportunity isn’t. Now that the trade deadline has passed, perhaps it never will be.

[1] I do hate generalizing like this, but for purposes of us using words to convey player values, I feel I have to.

[2] I have to be careful what I say here about Lou, who is a legend, and also one of Immanuel Quickley’s favorite players

[3] No fucking idea. I just googled “what is the most 1 sided battle in history.” Poor Gallic confederation.

[4] You will not often see a defensive highlight that ends in a wide open made 3 for the player in question’s primary assignment…

[5] He actually does get into guys, a rarity for smaller guards. I considered a highlight reel of IQ boxouts, but was shot down by my editor.