2027 win projections

I know I’m not alone in this take, but this is the most excited I’ve ever been for an NBA season. With the regular season being too long and the rise of tanking, I’ve gotten pretty bored in the middle of the season for at least a half decade now. I think that’s mostly over, and the intrigue for March basketball will be as high as it’s ever been¹.

And so this year’s win projections have gotten a facelift. During the season I’ll keep updating them with shot luck adjusted point differentials, injuries, and remaining schedule to simulate the season results for various playoff positioning odds². Quite simply, this website will now be used to build random tools that are mostly not publicly available that I’d be building for private use anyway.

The projections this year are from a blend of my own personal all in one metric, JAYLEN³, a handful of publicly available metrics, and a guess at projected minutes for the season.

I didn’t include Vegas numbers on the website, but I’ll touch on a few teams that I think the market is off on and why. I love being a hater, so let’s start with the unders:

Philadelphia: There is certainly playoff upside here, but ultimately there’s no data that would suggest these guys are going to be more than the sum of their parts— and the sum of their parts is not very impressive to begin with⁴. I would happily short them in the regular season, especially if their win total is approaching 50!

Los Angeles: It feels like these guys should be a regular season machine, but there’s a distinct lack of depth. Walker Kessler is a bit of a wild card. If you take his rookie season and project him forward with health and a standard aging curve, he’d be an all star by now. But he had two lost seasons in Utah, and our projections see him as more like an above average starter.

San Antonio: I wouldn’t be stoked to bet against Wemby, but he has a little bit more injury risk than the other MVP candidates. This number is just extremely high during a time when everyone, in theory, is gonna run through the tape.

Washington: I do think there’s enough youth here that these guys have a chance, but this is an easy bet against the coaching staff, the health of their stars, and their youth not being ready.

Utah: The good news for the Jazz is that they’re finally ready to win! The bad news for the Jazz is that, like the Wizards, there’s just no evidence that their youth is ready alongside Lauri and Jaren. Most importantly, Keyonte George might still get good, but if you respect all in one metrics, there’s zero evidence that he’s ever been good.

Wow, that was therapeutic. But now I have to be positive!

Memphis: Oh yea, the Baby Grizz are gonna be awesome. There is huge upside that my projections aren’t even capturing on Edey, Boozer, and Jerome. There’s depth. There’s seemingly good coaching and enough youth that they should be able to play a dozen guys every night and be ready to take a few injuries (of which sadly, despite their youth, they have a lot of high risk guys).

Boston: One of the funniest offseason lines has been “Well, of course the Celtics got smoked in the Jaylen Brown trade… but they’ll still win so many regular season games!” Guys, the regular season is by far the most predictive thing of playoff success (and, ya know, it gives you HCA). There’s no overthinking it— when available, PG is a viable substitute for JB, and Mitchell Robinson is a massive, massive upgrade at center. They are going to bomb 3s and unleash an all time offensive rebounder, and it’s gonna be basketball nerd-vana.

Houston: It’s surprising to me that the Rockets have been everyone’s darling team given their playoff exit and ongoing KD burner issues. But this time the market is right— these guys are going to be awesome in the regular season. Tons of youth, tons of rebounding, and just enough veteranosity to organize it all. 🚀

OK no more writing, let the projections speak for themselves. The website is very new and will have plenty of hiccups, so I’d appreciate feedback!

Let us NBA.