12 posts since 2022

Blog

NBA writing from Aaron Jones.

Illustration: Donovan Clingan as King Kong, clutching a basketball and climbing a skyscraper over Portland

Latest

Cling Kong

When I was looking at a list of potential ‘most improved player’ candidates, I stumbled across a season that’s being overlooked.

Aaron JonesMar 22, 20264 min read

Painting-style illustration of Jaylen Brown in a Celtics jersey, dissolving into sand under melting clocks

Mar 6, 20264 min read

A Fringe Top 5 Ja(y)len

Why Jaylen Brown is not an "MVP Candidate"

Cartoon of the NBA's tanking problem: a basketball in sunglasses drives an "NBA Tank" for one third of the league, with lottery balls, a random draft order wheel and a $20M rookie contract

Feb 15, 20265 min read

Unprotected Rep: Fixing Tanking in the Modern NBA

I am an expert at games. Poker in my 20s, DFS in my 30s, and along the way a top 10 player in the world at a bunch of obscure games you’ve probably never heard of.

Illustration: a sprawling spreadsheet of NBA team numbers, charts and formulas, with a #REF! circular reference error

Oct 20, 20255 min read

2026 Win Projections

This is the fourth year for the best publicly available win projections, now with less confidence than ever!

Illustration: a smiling man in a Lakers jersey rides an escalator up under a golden halo while men in suits tumble around him

Feb 2, 20253 min read

Failing Up

A quick primer on the Luka Dončić and Anthony Davis trade

Illustration: three men in orange shirts sit on an orange couch under framed pictures of animal heads

Oct 22, 20243 min read

2025 Win Projections

This is the third year I’ve posted my win projections publicly. Last year, my delta was 7.1, while Vegas had a delta of 6.4. The previous year, I had a delta of 5.9 compared to Vegas’s 6.3.

Illustration: a player in a No. 33 jersey rises for a shot in the dark, surrounded by dice, playing cards, poker chips and roulette wheels

Jun 25, 20248 min read

2024 NBA Draft: A Shot in the Dark

As I’ve written before, the NBA draft is a high variance affair.

Illustration: a lone player on an empty desert court at dusk, a basketball resting under the hoop

Oct 23, 20234 min read

2024 Win Projections

Last year I went 21-9 against Vegas. My win delta was 5.9, compared to Vegas' 6.3. Despite my best two bets on the board missing, I’d call it a fairly median result.

Immanuel Quickley in a white New York Knicks jersey

Feb 9, 20234 min read

High IQ

So much of what we learn about the extent of an NBA player’s ability is driven by opportunity. Steph Curry freed from the shackles of Monta Ellis.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: the movie's three cowboys with NBA players' faces

Oct 17, 20226 min read

Best Publicly Available NBA Projections

With the surge in popularity of sports betting, NBA Win Totals have gone mainstream.

Jun 23, 20224 min read

Big Bored

A lot of your favorite Twitter follows are probably posting their final big boards right about now. It’s fun, it’s draft szn! But I hate big boards, they’re an exercise in futility.

Video still from a Magic home game in Orlando

Apr 8, 20224 min read

Wagner's Law

The 2021 rookie class is an outlier. It’ll have multi-time All-Stars, All-NBAers, and maybe even a couple Hall of Famers. But one of the reasons it's so good has been decidedly overlooked.

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