Win projections

4 posts

Illustration: a sprawling spreadsheet of NBA team numbers, charts and formulas, with a #REF! circular reference error

Oct 20, 20255 min read

2026 Win Projections

This is the fourth year for the best publicly available win projections, now with less confidence than ever!

Illustration: three men in orange shirts sit on an orange couch under framed pictures of animal heads

Oct 22, 20243 min read

2025 Win Projections

This is the third year I’ve posted my win projections publicly. Last year, my delta was 7.1, while Vegas had a delta of 6.4. The previous year, I had a delta of 5.9 compared to Vegas’s 6.3.

Illustration: a lone player on an empty desert court at dusk, a basketball resting under the hoop

Oct 23, 20234 min read

2024 Win Projections

Last year I went 21-9 against Vegas. My win delta was 5.9, compared to Vegas' 6.3. Despite my best two bets on the board missing, I’d call it a fairly median result.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: the movie's three cowboys with NBA players' faces

Oct 17, 20226 min read

Best Publicly Available NBA Projections

With the surge in popularity of sports betting, NBA Win Totals have gone mainstream.