How it works

We rate every player, estimate how much he’ll play, and add it up team by team. Then we play out the schedule thousands of times to see the range of outcomes.

Player ratings blend our JAYLEN rating with EPM, adjusted for age. Rookies are rated from draft slot, age and college production.

How good is it? Even knowing who actually played, a team’s win total typically lands within about 7 wins of our number — basketball has a lot of luck. And the projections don’t know about future trades or injuries.

Rosters as of September 29, 2026.