Fred VanVleet 2026–27 projection
Houston RocketsGAge 32.6Current age in years, from his birth date.
+1.90
+0.42+3.44ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.Per 100 possessions0 = league average
Middle 80%Middle 80% of his possible Impact this season, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player. of outcomes · ±1.19Spread of his possible Impact, one standard deviation. Smaller means we are more sure.High error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations.
A wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations.17,195 career NBA minutes · 0 minutes last season.
Playing time
Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
1,881
1,246–2,614Middle 80% of simulated season minutes, including health, role and competition for playing time.
GamesExpected games played, allowing for health and role, to the nearest game.
62
37–73Middle 80% of simulated games played.
Minutes a gameEstimated minutes per game played.
30.2
AvailabilityChance of playing at least 75% of estimated minutes. Includes health, role and rotation competition; not the chance of staying healthy.
85%
Small numbers under each total are the middle 80% of outcomes.
Where Impact comes from
JAYLENOur player impact rating, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
+1.73Our player impact rating
Expected EPMDunks & Threes’ estimate of current impact from career data, per 100 possessions versus average.
+1.96From Dunks & Threes
Impact blends two ratings: 22% JAYLEN and 78% Expected EPM, each aged forward a year.
Rating historyHis past seasons in the two ratings behind Impact, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−4
−2
Avg
+2
+4
+6
16–1717–1818–1919–2020–2121–2222–2323–2424–2525–2626–27›Season by season
| Season | Age | Min | Games | JAYLEN | Exp. EPM | Actual EPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 31 | 0 | – | – | +1.74 | – |
| 2024–25 | 30 | 2,113 | 60 | +3.00 | +2.66 | +2.83 |
| 2023–24 | 29 | 2,684 | 73 | +1.08 | +3.70 | +3.81 |
| 2022–23 | 28 | 2,535 | 69 | +2.32 | +3.70 | +3.38 |
| 2021–22 | 27 | 2,462 | 65 | +1.34 | +2.69 | +3.41 |
| 2020–21 | 26 | 1,899 | 52 | +1.59 | +3.65 | +3.79 |
| 2019–20 | 25 | 1,928 | 54 | −0.19 | +2.66 | +2.88 |
| 2018–19 | 24 | 1,760 | 64 | +0.23 | +0.65 | +0.51 |
| 2017–18 | 23 | 1,520 | 76 | +2.78 | +2.49 | +2.86 |
| 2016–17 | 22 | 294 | 37 | −3.11 | −1.97 | −2.69 |
Injury flagFlagged in our injury review. Hover the flag for the injury and its current status.
Right ACL and meniscus repair. Cleared for full practice; early back-to-back restrictions expected.
- Injury date
- September 2025
- Early-return limitAssumed minutes-per-game limit for the first 5–10 games back. Our judgment, not a team announcement.
- About 28 minutes a game
How he joinedHow the player joined his current team, from the official roster.
Signed July 7, 2023
Rockets teammates
- PlayerImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.MinEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
- Amen ThompsonG-FImpact +2.77Estimated minutes 2,463
- Jabari Smith Jr.FImpact +0.63Estimated minutes 2,381
- Kevin DurantFImpact +1.73Estimated minutes 2,237
- Alperen SengunCImpact +1.61Estimated minutes 2,207
- Reed SheppardGImpact −0.57Estimated minutes 1,642
- Marcus SmartGImpact +0.84Estimated minutes 1,532
- Tari EasonFImpact +0.87Estimated minutes 1,489
- Bogdan BogdanovićGImpact −0.65Estimated minutes 1,080
- Steven AdamsCImpact +0.14Estimated minutes 1,016
- Clint CapelaCImpact −0.68Estimated minutes 542
›8 more on the roster
- Bruce ThorntonGImpact −1.70Estimated minutes 497
- Jae'Sean TateFImpact −2.24Estimated minutes 306
- Isaiah CrawfordFImpact −3.20Estimated minutes 111
- Quadir CopelandGImpact −2.07Estimated minutes 106
- Julian PhillipsFImpact −1.41Estimated minutes 54
- Oscar TshiebweF-CImpact −1.77Estimated minutes 54
- Sean PedullaGImpact −1.96Estimated minutes 45
- Rafael CastroCImpact −1.71Estimated minutes 37
Ranges assume he plays. Impact is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player (0 = average).