Jabari Smith Jr. 2026–27 projection
Houston RocketsFAge 23.4Current age in years, from his birth date.
+0.63
−0.52+1.77ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.Per 100 possessions0 = league average
Middle 80%Middle 80% of his possible Impact this season, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player. of outcomes · ±0.91Spread of his possible Impact, one standard deviation. Smaller means we are more sure.
Playing time
Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
2,381
1,218–3,090Middle 80% of simulated season minutes, including health, role and competition for playing time.
GamesExpected games played, allowing for health and role, to the nearest game.
74
33–82Middle 80% of simulated games played.
Minutes a gameEstimated minutes per game played.
32.0
AvailabilityChance of playing at least 75% of estimated minutes. Includes health, role and rotation competition; not the chance of staying healthy.
77%
Small numbers under each total are the middle 80% of outcomes.
Where Impact comes from
JAYLENOur player impact rating, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
+0.62Our player impact rating
Expected EPMDunks & Threes’ estimate of current impact from career data, per 100 possessions versus average.
+0.63From Dunks & Threes
Impact blends two ratings: 22% JAYLEN and 78% Expected EPM, each aged forward a year.
Rating historyHis past seasons in the two ratings behind Impact, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−6
−4
−2
Avg
+2
+4
22–2323–2424–2525–2626–27›Season by season
| Season | Age | Min | Games | JAYLEN | Exp. EPM | Actual EPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 22 | 2,706 | 77 | +0.04 | +0.51 | +0.53 |
| 2024–25 | 21 | 1,716 | 57 | +0.41 | −0.89 | −0.08 |
| 2023–24 | 20 | 2,424 | 76 | −1.56 | −1.72 | −0.53 |
| 2022–23 | 19 | 2,451 | 79 | −4.95 | −2.84 | −3.03 |
How he joinedHow the player joined his current team, from the official roster.
Drafted No. 3 in 2022
Rockets teammates
- PlayerImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.MinEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
- Amen ThompsonG-FImpact +2.77Estimated minutes 2,463
- Kevin DurantFImpact +1.73Estimated minutes 2,237
- Alperen SengunCImpact +1.61Estimated minutes 2,207
- Fred VanVleetGImpact +1.90Estimated minutes 1,881
- Reed SheppardGImpact −0.57Estimated minutes 1,642
- Marcus SmartGImpact +0.84Estimated minutes 1,532
- Tari EasonFImpact +0.87Estimated minutes 1,489
- Bogdan BogdanovićGImpact −0.65Estimated minutes 1,080
- Steven AdamsCImpact +0.14Estimated minutes 1,016
- Clint CapelaCImpact −0.68Estimated minutes 542
›8 more on the roster
- Bruce ThorntonGImpact −1.70Estimated minutes 497
- Jae'Sean TateFImpact −2.24Estimated minutes 306
- Isaiah CrawfordFImpact −3.20Estimated minutes 111
- Quadir CopelandGImpact −2.07Estimated minutes 106
- Julian PhillipsFImpact −1.41Estimated minutes 54
- Oscar TshiebweF-CImpact −1.77Estimated minutes 54
- Sean PedullaGImpact −1.96Estimated minutes 45
- Rafael CastroCImpact −1.71Estimated minutes 37
Ranges assume he plays. Impact is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player (0 = average).