Izaiyah Nelson 2026–27 projection
Orlando MagicFAge 23.0Current age in years, from his birth date.
−1.76
−3.09−0.42ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.Per 100 possessions0 = league average
Middle 80%Middle 80% of his possible Impact this season, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player. of outcomes · ±1.02Spread of his possible Impact, one standard deviation. Smaller means we are more sure.
Playing time
Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
146
5–340Middle 80% of simulated season minutes, including health, role and competition for playing time.
GamesExpected games played, allowing for health and role, to the nearest game.
20
1–39Middle 80% of simulated games played.
Minutes a gameEstimated minutes per game played.
7.3
AvailabilityChance of playing at least 75% of estimated minutes. Includes health, role and rotation competition; not the chance of staying healthy.
66%
Small numbers under each total are the middle 80% of outcomes.
Where Impact comes from
JAYLENOur player impact rating, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−1.80Our player impact rating
Expected EPMDunks & Threes’ estimate of current impact from career data, per 100 possessions versus average.
−1.74From Dunks & Threes
Impact blends two ratings: 22% JAYLEN and 78% Expected EPM, each aged forward a year.
Rookie estimate
No NBA games yet, so his estimate comes from his draft slot, age and college production.
Draft pickOverall pick in the NBA draft. Blank means undrafted.
No. 51
College
South Florida
2025–26 · 33 games
Above-average chanceModeled chance this rookie rates above an average NBA player this season.
4%
Similar past prospectsPast prospects with a similar draft slot, age and college production, and their rookie-year Impact. Examples, not predictions.
| Player | Rookie year | Pick | ImpactHis Impact in his rookie season, per 100 possessions versus an average player. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Morgan | 2019–20 | – | −1.95 |
| Toumani Camara | 2023–24 | 52 | −1.06 |
| Johnathan Williams | 2018–19 | – | −1.61 |
How he joinedHow the player joined his current team, from the official roster.
Draft rights acquired from the Wizards on June 24, 2026
Magic teammates
- PlayerImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.MinEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
- Paolo BancheroFImpact +0.91Estimated minutes 2,305
- Desmond BaneGImpact +1.34Estimated minutes 2,127
- Franz WagnerFImpact +3.94Estimated minutes 1,987
- Anthony BlackGImpact −0.45Estimated minutes 1,769
- Wendell Carter Jr.C-FImpact +0.63Estimated minutes 1,714
- Tristan da SilvaFImpact −1.36Estimated minutes 1,583
- Jalen SuggsGImpact +1.19Estimated minutes 1,543
- Nikola VučevićCImpact −0.86Estimated minutes 1,398
- Noah PendaG-FImpact −2.57Estimated minutes 1,289
- Jevon CarterGImpact −2.10Estimated minutes 1,045
›9 more on the roster
- Jamal CainFImpact −2.20Estimated minutes 736
- Jase RichardsonGImpact −2.01Estimated minutes 692
- Goga BitadzeC-FImpact +0.30Estimated minutes 580
- Jonathan IsaacFImpact +0.60Estimated minutes 387
- Colin CastletonCImpact −2.39Estimated minutes 146
- Alex MoralesGImpact −2.79Estimated minutes 144
- Kevin Knox IIFImpact −2.85Estimated minutes 89
- JD DavisonGImpact −1.46Estimated minutes 0
- Malaki BranhamFImpact −2.25Estimated minutes 0
Ranges assume he plays. Impact is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player (0 = average).