Keaton Wagler 2026–27 projection
LA ClippersGAge 19.6Current age in years, from his birth date.
−1.53
−3.10+0.02ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.Per 100 possessions0 = league average
Middle 80%Middle 80% of his possible Impact this season, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player. of outcomes · ±1.23Spread of his possible Impact, one standard deviation. Smaller means we are more sure.High error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations.
A wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations.Rookie: no NBA minutes yet.
Playing time
Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
1,934
1,056–2,588Middle 80% of simulated season minutes, including health, role and competition for playing time.
GamesExpected games played, allowing for health and role, to the nearest game.
73
37–82Middle 80% of simulated games played.
Minutes a gameEstimated minutes per game played.
26.5
AvailabilityChance of playing at least 75% of estimated minutes. Includes health, role and rotation competition; not the chance of staying healthy.
77%
Small numbers under each total are the middle 80% of outcomes.
Where Impact comes from
JAYLENOur player impact rating, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−2.38Our player impact rating
Expected EPMDunks & Threes’ estimate of current impact from career data, per 100 possessions versus average.
−1.30From Dunks & Threes
Impact blends two ratings: 22% JAYLEN and 78% Expected EPM, each aged forward a year.
Rookie estimate
No NBA games yet, so his estimate comes from his draft slot, age and college production.
Draft pickOverall pick in the NBA draft. Blank means undrafted.
No. 5
College
Illinois
2025–26 · 37 games
Above-average chanceModeled chance this rookie rates above an average NBA player this season.
11%
Similar past prospectsPast prospects with a similar draft slot, age and college production, and their rookie-year Impact. Examples, not predictions.
| Player | Rookie year | Pick | ImpactHis Impact in his rookie season, per 100 possessions versus an average player. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coby White | 2019–20 | 7 | −2.18 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 2022–23 | 6 | −2.57 |
| Jalen Suggs | 2021–22 | 5 | −2.06 |
How he joinedHow the player joined his current team, from the official roster.
Drafted No. 5 in 2026
Clippers teammates
- PlayerImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.MinEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
- Rui HachimuraFImpact −0.83Estimated minutes 1,952
- Darius GarlandGImpact +1.80Estimated minutes 1,947
- Max StrusG-FImpact −0.01Estimated minutes 1,785
- Brook LopezCImpact −0.25Estimated minutes 1,708
- Derrick Jones Jr.FImpact −0.01Estimated minutes 1,604
- Kris DunnGImpact −0.24Estimated minutes 1,566
- Kobe SandersGImpact −0.82Estimated minutes 1,377
- Brandon IngramFImpact −1.15Estimated minutes 1,353
- Bradley BealGImpact −1.52Estimated minutes 1,258
- Isaiah JacksonFImpact −0.86Estimated minutes 953
›10 more on the roster
- Gradey DickG-FImpact −2.15Estimated minutes 824
- Yanic Konan NiederhäuserCImpact −2.33Estimated minutes 734
- Jordan MillerGImpact −2.01Estimated minutes 225
- Jalen PickettGImpact −2.20Estimated minutes 155
- Baba MillerFImpact −1.62Estimated minutes 118
- Nick MartinelliFImpact −2.17Estimated minutes 102
- Fletcher LoyerImpact −2.18Estimated minutes 46
- Yuki KawamuraGImpact −2.13Estimated minutes 39
- Blake WesleyGImpact −2.68Estimated minutes 0
- Cam ChristieGImpact −1.83Estimated minutes 0
Ranges assume he plays. Impact is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player (0 = average).