LA Clippers 2026–27 projection
12th in the West · Pacific
33.1±7.1How far a typical season lands from the projection, in wins (one standard deviation). Bigger means a wider range. projected wins
Long shot for the playoffsProjected wins33–49 record
- Net ratingProjected point differential per game: points scored minus points allowed. Positive means outscoring opponents.
- −3.5
- Likely winsThe middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 24–43
- Minutes backShare of last season’s team minutes played by players still on this roster. Retained injured players count; new arrivals don’t.
- 49%
Range of outcomesEvery simulated season for this team. The bright middle is where 80% of seasons land; the dot is the projection.
Middle 80% of simulated seasons: 24 to 43 wins. Worst 5% average 19 wins; best 5% average 48 wins.
- Worst 5%Average wins in the unluckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 19
- Middle 80%The middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 24–43
- Best 5%Average wins in the luckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 48
Biggest swing playersPlayers whose uncertain performance or availability moves this team’s strength the most.: Keaton Wagler, Darius Garland and Max Strus.
Postseason chances
- 22%PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 9%Top 6Chance to finish first through sixth in the conference: an automatic playoff spot.
- 30%Play-inChance to finish seventh through tenth and enter the play-in, whether or not the team advances.
- <1%No. 1 seedChance to finish first in the conference in the regular season.
Team profileScores run 1–100 across the 30 teams, keeping the real gaps between them. Not a percentile. The tick marks the league average.
1–100 scale
- SpacingThree-point threat: projected threes made per 100 possessions, weighted by each player’s estimated minutes.
- ReboundingShare of missed shots this rotation should grab, from players’ own rebounding and how teams rebound with them on court.
- Rim defenseRim protection from shot-contest data and how often opponents reach the rim with each player on the court.
- CreationHow much scoring and playmaking the rotation carries: shots, free-throw trips and assists per 100 possessions. More is not automatically better.
- Age riskWins this team could lose in a bad year for its older players (the worst 10% of cases). A what-if, not a prediction. 14th-most of 30 teams.: −2.1 wins in a bad year for the veterans
Projected rotation
| PlayerTap a row for a quick look. The name opens his full page. | ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average. | Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time. |
|---|---|---|
| Rui HachimuraF · 28.6 | −0.83 | 1,952 |
| Darius GarlandG · 26.7Injury flagHistorical right great-toe sprain and left-toe management. Returned for April 2026 games; no new camp medical status verified | +1.80 | 1,947 |
| Keaton WaglerG · 19.6RookieFirst NBA season. Draft position, age and college production guide the estimate.High error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations. | −1.53 | 1,934 |
| Max StrusG-F · 30.5Injury flagRepaired left foot fracture. Returned March 2026 after 67 missed games | −0.01 | 1,785 |
| Brook LopezC · 38.5 | −0.25 | 1,708 |
| Derrick Jones Jr.F · 29.6 | −0.01 | 1,604 |
| Kris DunnG · 32.5 | −0.24 | 1,566 |
| Kobe SandersG · 24.3 | −0.82 | 1,377 |
| Brandon IngramF · 29.1Injury flagRight heel surgery with partial Achilles tear. Limited camp; no debut timetableHigh error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations. | −1.15 | 1,353 |
| Bradley BealG · 33.2Injury flagRight knee inflammation. Unavailable for start of training camp | −1.52 | 1,258 |
Projected West
SeedProjected conference finish by projected wins. Seeds 1–6 make the playoffs; 7–10 go to the play-in.TeamClick a team to open its full outlook: odds, range of outcomes, team profile and rotation.WinsProjected regular-season wins, adding up each game’s win chance across the full 82-game schedule.PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 1
Thunder61.1±6.6>99% - 2
Spurs54.7±7.197% - 3
Rockets52.7±7.296% - 4
Nuggets45.4±8.176% - 5
Trail Blazers44.7±8.274% - 6
Timberwolves42.1±7.466% - Play-in · seeds 7–10
- 7
Warriors41.5±7.462% - 8
Lakers40.3±7.854% - 9
Suns37.3±7.340% - 10
Mavericks36.5±7.937% - Outside the play-in
- 11
Grizzlies34.7±7.428% - 12Clippers33.1±7.122%
- 13
Jazz32.8±7.421% - 14
Pelicans32.7±7.822% - 15
Kings27.7±6.87%
Season context
- ScheduleWins gained or lost from this team’s schedule versus a balanced one. Positive means an easier schedule.
- +0.1 wins12th-easiest
- Rotation ageAverage age of the rotation, weighted by estimated minutes. Players expected to play more count more.
- 28.3Weighted by minutes