Braden Smith 2026–27 projection
Indiana PacersGAge 23.2Current age in years, from his birth date.
−1.89
−3.24−0.59ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.Per 100 possessions0 = league average
Middle 80%Middle 80% of his possible Impact this season, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player. of outcomes · ±1.03Spread of his possible Impact, one standard deviation. Smaller means we are more sure.High error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations.
A wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations.Rookie: no NBA minutes yet.
Playing time
Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
160
0–363Middle 80% of simulated season minutes, including health, role and competition for playing time.
GamesExpected games played, allowing for health and role, to the nearest game.
22
0–41Middle 80% of simulated games played.
Minutes a gameEstimated minutes per game played.
7.3
AvailabilityChance of playing at least 75% of estimated minutes. Includes health, role and rotation competition; not the chance of staying healthy.
66%
Small numbers under each total are the middle 80% of outcomes.
Where Impact comes from
JAYLENOur player impact rating, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−2.02Our player impact rating
Expected EPMDunks & Threes’ estimate of current impact from career data, per 100 possessions versus average.
−1.85From Dunks & Threes
Impact blends two ratings: 22% JAYLEN and 78% Expected EPM, each aged forward a year.
Rookie estimate
No NBA games yet, so his estimate comes from his draft slot, age and college production.
Draft pickOverall pick in the NBA draft. Blank means undrafted.
No. 38
College
Purdue
2025–26 · 39 games
Above-average chanceModeled chance this rookie rates above an average NBA player this season.
3%
Similar past prospectsPast prospects with a similar draft slot, age and college production, and their rookie-year Impact. Examples, not predictions.
| Player | Rookie year | Pick | ImpactHis Impact in his rookie season, per 100 possessions versus an average player. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jevon Carter | 2018–19 | 32 | −2.38 |
| Fred VanVleet | 2016–17 | – | −1.91 |
| Malachi Flynn | 2020–21 | 29 | −1.36 |
How he joinedHow the player joined his current team, from the official roster.
Draft rights acquired from the Bulls on June 24, 2026
Pacers teammates
- PlayerImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.MinEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
- Pascal SiakamFImpact +1.90Estimated minutes 2,101
- Ivica ZubacCImpact +1.76Estimated minutes 1,985
- Andrew NembhardG-FImpact +0.66Estimated minutes 1,981
- Tyrese HaliburtonGImpact +3.40Estimated minutes 1,870
- Aaron NesmithG-FImpact +0.41Estimated minutes 1,849
- Kelly Oubre Jr.F-GImpact −1.56Estimated minutes 1,767
- Jarace WalkerFImpact −2.80Estimated minutes 1,395
- Obi ToppinFImpact −0.11Estimated minutes 1,280
- Ben SheppardGImpact −2.11Estimated minutes 1,273
- Jay HuffCImpact −1.73Estimated minutes 1,222
›9 more on the roster
- T.J. McConnellGImpact −0.76Estimated minutes 1,084
- Quenton JacksonGImpact −0.98Estimated minutes 530
- Larry Nance Jr.F-CImpact −1.71Estimated minutes 466
- Jalen SlawsonFImpact −2.63Estimated minutes 297
- Kobe BrownFImpact −3.46Estimated minutes 152
- James JohnsonFImpact −5.19Estimated minutes 90
- Johnny FurphyGImpact −1.40Estimated minutes 88
- Keba KeitaCImpact −1.95Estimated minutes 45
- Rienk MastCImpact −1.97Estimated minutes 45
Ranges assume he plays. Impact is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player (0 = average).