Luka Dončić 2026–27 projection
Los Angeles LakersF-GAge 27.6Current age in years, from his birth date.
+5.13
+3.92+6.26ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.Per 100 possessions0 = league average
Middle 80%Middle 80% of his possible Impact this season, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player. of outcomes · ±0.93Spread of his possible Impact, one standard deviation. Smaller means we are more sure.
Playing time
Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
2,094
829–2,933Middle 80% of simulated season minutes, including health, role and competition for playing time.
GamesExpected games played, allowing for health and role, to the nearest game.
64
22–82Middle 80% of simulated games played.
Minutes a gameEstimated minutes per game played.
32.5
AvailabilityChance of playing at least 75% of estimated minutes. Includes health, role and rotation competition; not the chance of staying healthy.
74%
Small numbers under each total are the middle 80% of outcomes.
Where Impact comes from
JAYLENOur player impact rating, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
+2.58Our player impact rating
Expected EPMDunks & Threes’ estimate of current impact from career data, per 100 possessions versus average.
+5.85From Dunks & Threes
Impact blends two ratings: 22% JAYLEN and 78% Expected EPM, each aged forward a year.
Rating historyHis past seasons in the two ratings behind Impact, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−2
Avg
+2
+4
+6
+8
18–1919–2020–2121–2222–2323–2424–2525–2626–27›Season by season
| Season | Age | Min | Games | JAYLEN | Exp. EPM | Actual EPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 26 | 2,289 | 64 | +2.75 | +6.41 | +6.62 |
| 2024–25 | 25 | 1,769 | 50 | +2.71 | +5.79 | +6.19 |
| 2023–24 | 24 | 2,624 | 70 | +3.21 | +6.53 | +7.47 |
| 2022–23 | 23 | 2,391 | 66 | +0.75 | +5.07 | +6.17 |
| 2021–22 | 22 | 2,301 | 65 | +0.12 | +4.48 | +4.26 |
| 2020–21 | 21 | 2,262 | 66 | +0.57 | +4.69 | +5.09 |
| 2019–20 | 20 | 2,047 | 61 | +1.26 | +3.33 | +4.53 |
| 2018–19 | 19 | 2,318 | 72 | −1.56 | +2.71 | +1.73 |
How he joinedHow the player joined his current team, from the official roster.
Traded from the Mavericks on February 2, 2025
Lakers teammates
- PlayerImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.MinEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
- Austin ReavesGImpact +1.72Estimated minutes 2,279
- Quentin GrimesGImpact −1.31Estimated minutes 1,948
- Walker KesslerCImpact +0.35Estimated minutes 1,930
- Jake LaRaviaFImpact −1.06Estimated minutes 1,725
- Sandro MamukelashviliF-CImpact +0.24Estimated minutes 1,509
- Ziaire WilliamsFImpact −1.40Estimated minutes 1,497
- Collin SextonGImpact −0.83Estimated minutes 1,495
- Jarred VanderbiltFImpact −1.17Estimated minutes 1,014
- Matisse ThybulleG-FImpact −1.21Estimated minutes 1,008
- Kevon LooneyFImpact −0.43Estimated minutes 714
›10 more on the roster
- Cameron CarrGImpact −2.19Estimated minutes 571
- Adou ThieroGImpact −3.49Estimated minutes 446
- Jaden HardyGImpact −2.01Estimated minutes 438
- Dalton KnechtFImpact −2.44Estimated minutes 326
- Bronny JamesGImpact −3.38Estimated minutes 286
- Arthur KalumaFImpact −1.87Estimated minutes 100
- Chris MañonGImpact −3.84Estimated minutes 89
- Cole SwiderFImpact −1.80Estimated minutes 87
- AK OkerekeFImpact −2.22Estimated minutes 81
- William KyleImpact −1.93Estimated minutes 43
Mentioned in
Ranges assume he plays. Impact is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player (0 = average).