Los Angeles Lakers 2026–27 projection
8th in the West · Pacific
40.3±7.8How far a typical season lands from the projection, in wins (one standard deviation). Bigger means a wider range. projected wins
On the playoff bubbleProjected wins40–42 record
- Net ratingProjected point differential per game: points scored minus points allowed. Positive means outscoring opponents.
- −0.3
- Likely winsThe middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 30–50
- Minutes backShare of last season’s team minutes played by players still on this roster. Retained injured players count; new arrivals don’t.
- 42%
Range of outcomesEvery simulated season for this team. The bright middle is where 80% of seasons land; the dot is the projection.
Middle 80% of simulated seasons: 30 to 50 wins. Worst 5% average 24 wins; best 5% average 56 wins.
- Worst 5%Average wins in the unluckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 24
- Middle 80%The middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 30–50
- Best 5%Average wins in the luckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 56
Biggest swing playersPlayers whose uncertain performance or availability moves this team’s strength the most.: Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves and Walker Kessler.
Postseason chances
- 54%PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 35%Top 6Chance to finish first through sixth in the conference: an automatic playoff spot.
- 38%Play-inChance to finish seventh through tenth and enter the play-in, whether or not the team advances.
- 1%No. 1 seedChance to finish first in the conference in the regular season.
Team profileScores run 1–100 across the 30 teams, keeping the real gaps between them. Not a percentile. The tick marks the league average.
1–100 scale
- SpacingThree-point threat: projected threes made per 100 possessions, weighted by each player’s estimated minutes.
- ReboundingShare of missed shots this rotation should grab, from players’ own rebounding and how teams rebound with them on court.
- Rim defenseRim protection from shot-contest data and how often opponents reach the rim with each player on the court.
- CreationHow much scoring and playmaking the rotation carries: shots, free-throw trips and assists per 100 possessions. More is not automatically better.
- Age riskWins this team could lose in a bad year for its older players (the worst 10% of cases). A what-if, not a prediction. The least in the league.: −0.5 wins in a bad year for the veterans
Projected rotation
| PlayerTap a row for a quick look. The name opens his full page. | ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average. | Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time. |
|---|---|---|
| Austin ReavesG · 28.3 | +1.72 | 2,279 |
| Luka DončićF-G · 27.6 | +5.13 | 2,094 |
| Quentin GrimesG · 26.4Low error barsA narrower Impact range than most, backed by a large recent NBA sample at a prime age. | −1.31 | 1,948 |
| Walker KesslerC · 25.2Injury flagLeft shoulder labrum repair. Expected returning player after nearly full missed seasonHigh error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations. | +0.35 | 1,930 |
| Jake LaRaviaF · 24.9 | −1.06 | 1,725 |
| Sandro MamukelashviliF-C · 27.3 | +0.24 | 1,509 |
| Ziaire WilliamsF · 25.0 | −1.40 | 1,497 |
| Collin SextonG · 27.7 | −0.83 | 1,495 |
| Jarred VanderbiltF · 27.5 | −1.17 | 1,014 |
| Matisse ThybulleG-F · 29.6 | −1.21 | 1,008 |
Projected West
SeedProjected conference finish by projected wins. Seeds 1–6 make the playoffs; 7–10 go to the play-in.TeamClick a team to open its full outlook: odds, range of outcomes, team profile and rotation.WinsProjected regular-season wins, adding up each game’s win chance across the full 82-game schedule.PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 1
Thunder61.1±6.6>99% - 2
Spurs54.7±7.197% - 3
Rockets52.7±7.296% - 4
Nuggets45.4±8.176% - 5
Trail Blazers44.7±8.274% - 6
Timberwolves42.1±7.466% - Play-in · seeds 7–10
- 7
Warriors41.5±7.462% - 8Lakers40.3±7.854%
- 9
Suns37.3±7.340% - 10
Mavericks36.5±7.937% - Outside the play-in
- 11
Grizzlies34.7±7.428% - 12
Clippers33.1±7.122% - 13
Jazz32.8±7.421% - 14
Pelicans32.7±7.822% - 15
Kings27.7±6.87%
Season context
- ScheduleWins gained or lost from this team’s schedule versus a balanced one. Positive means an easier schedule.
- 0.0 wins14th-hardest
- Rotation ageAverage age of the rotation, weighted by estimated minutes. Players expected to play more count more.
- 26.6Weighted by minutes