Dereck Lively II 2026–27 projection
Dallas MavericksCAge 22.6Current age in years, from his birth date.
+3.01
+1.49+4.49ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.Per 100 possessions0 = league average
Middle 80%Middle 80% of his possible Impact this season, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player. of outcomes · ±1.16Spread of his possible Impact, one standard deviation. Smaller means we are more sure.High error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations.
A wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations.2,242 career NBA minutes · 115 minutes last season.
Playing time
Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
820
400–1,386Middle 80% of simulated season minutes, including health, role and competition for playing time.
GamesExpected games played, allowing for health and role, to the nearest game.
42
19–62Middle 80% of simulated games played.
Minutes a gameEstimated minutes per game played.
19.5
AvailabilityChance of playing at least 75% of estimated minutes. Includes health, role and rotation competition; not the chance of staying healthy.
76%
Small numbers under each total are the middle 80% of outcomes.
Where Impact comes from
JAYLENOur player impact rating, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
+3.68Our player impact rating
Expected EPMDunks & Threes’ estimate of current impact from career data, per 100 possessions versus average.
+2.82From Dunks & Threes
Impact blends two ratings: 22% JAYLEN and 78% Expected EPM, each aged forward a year.
Rating historyHis past seasons in the two ratings behind Impact, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−4
−2
Avg
+2
+4
+6
23–2424–2525–2626–27›Season by season
| Season | Age | Min | Games | JAYLEN | Exp. EPM | Actual EPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 21 | 115 | 7 | −0.05 | +0.42 | −2.42 |
| 2024–25 | 20 | 833 | 36 | +1.60 | +2.47 | +2.30 |
| 2023–24 | 19 | 1,294 | 55 | +2.73 | +1.46 | +0.73 |
Injury flagFlagged in our injury review. Hover the flag for the injury and its current status.
Right foot injury requiring surgery. Limited start to camp; cautious ramp.
- Injury date
- December 2025
- Early-return limitAssumed minutes-per-game limit for the first 5–10 games back. Our judgment, not a team announcement.
- About 18 minutes a game
How he joinedHow the player joined his current team, from the official roster.
Draft rights acquired from the Thunder on July 6, 2023
Mavericks teammates
- PlayerImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.MinEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
- Cooper FlaggFImpact +1.16Estimated minutes 2,317
- Max ChristieGImpact −1.44Estimated minutes 2,028
- P.J. WashingtonFImpact −0.53Estimated minutes 1,746
- Naji MarshallFImpact −0.31Estimated minutes 1,739
- Kyrie IrvingGImpact +2.64Estimated minutes 1,686
- Morez Johnson Jr.FImpact −1.54Estimated minutes 1,653
- Zaccharie RisacherFImpact −1.45Estimated minutes 1,380
- Santi AldamaF-CImpact −0.41Estimated minutes 1,341
- Daniel GaffordF-CImpact +0.58Estimated minutes 1,245
- Tarik BiberovicFImpact −1.93Estimated minutes 927
›9 more on the roster
- Sergio de LarreaGImpact −2.14Estimated minutes 862
- Marcus SasserGImpact −1.21Estimated minutes 720
- Caleb MartinFImpact −2.36Estimated minutes 378
- Moussa CisseCImpact −2.43Estimated minutes 319
- Jett HowardGImpact −2.48Estimated minutes 231
- John PoulakidasGImpact −1.54Estimated minutes 99
- Tobi LawalFImpact −2.40Estimated minutes 99
- Seth LundyG-FImpact −2.51Estimated minutes 90
- Dwight PowellF-CImpact −1.75Estimated minutes 0
Ranges assume he plays. Impact is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player (0 = average).