Dallas Mavericks 2026–27 projection
10th in the West · SouthwestNew coachFirst full season with a new head coach. Such teams have been less predictable, so the range is wider; projected wins don’t change.
36.5±7.9How far a typical season lands from the projection, in wins (one standard deviation). Bigger means a wider range. projected wins
Long shot for the playoffsProjected wins37–45 record
- Net ratingProjected point differential per game: points scored minus points allowed. Positive means outscoring opponents.
- −2.0
- Likely winsThe middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 26–47
- Minutes backShare of last season’s team minutes played by players still on this roster. Retained injured players count; new arrivals don’t.
- 62%
Range of outcomesEvery simulated season for this team. The bright middle is where 80% of seasons land; the dot is the projection.
Middle 80% of simulated seasons: 26 to 47 wins. Worst 5% average 21 wins; best 5% average 53 wins.
- Worst 5%Average wins in the unluckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 21
- Middle 80%The middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 26–47
- Best 5%Average wins in the luckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 53
Biggest swing playersPlayers whose uncertain performance or availability moves this team’s strength the most.: Kyrie Irving, Cooper Flagg and Morez Johnson Jr..
Postseason chances
- 37%PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 20%Top 6Chance to finish first through sixth in the conference: an automatic playoff spot.
- 36%Play-inChance to finish seventh through tenth and enter the play-in, whether or not the team advances.
- <1%No. 1 seedChance to finish first in the conference in the regular season.
Team profileScores run 1–100 across the 30 teams, keeping the real gaps between them. Not a percentile. The tick marks the league average.
1–100 scale
- SpacingThree-point threat: projected threes made per 100 possessions, weighted by each player’s estimated minutes.
- ReboundingShare of missed shots this rotation should grab, from players’ own rebounding and how teams rebound with them on court.
- Rim defenseRim protection from shot-contest data and how often opponents reach the rim with each player on the court.
- CreationHow much scoring and playmaking the rotation carries: shots, free-throw trips and assists per 100 possessions. More is not automatically better.
- Age riskWins this team could lose in a bad year for its older players (the worst 10% of cases). A what-if, not a prediction. 8th-most of 30 teams.: −2.7 wins in a bad year for the veterans
Projected rotation
| PlayerTap a row for a quick look. The name opens his full page. | ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average. | Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time. |
|---|---|---|
| Cooper FlaggF · 19.8 | +1.16 | 2,317 |
| Max ChristieG · 23.6 | −1.44 | 2,028 |
| P.J. WashingtonF · 28.1 | −0.53 | 1,746 |
| Naji MarshallF · 28.7Low error barsA narrower Impact range than most, backed by a large recent NBA sample at a prime age. | −0.31 | 1,739 |
| Kyrie IrvingG · 34.5Injury flagLeft ACL rupture. Expected return after full 2025-26 season missedHigh error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations. | +2.64 | 1,686 |
| Morez Johnson Jr.F · 20.7RookieFirst NBA season. Draft position, age and college production guide the estimate.High error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations. | −1.54 | 1,653 |
| Zaccharie RisacherF · 21.5 | −1.45 | 1,380 |
| Santi AldamaF-C · 25.7Injury flagRight knee arthroscopic surgery. Camp participation uncertain | −0.41 | 1,341 |
| Daniel GaffordF-C · 28.0 | +0.58 | 1,245 |
| Tarik BiberovicF · 25.6RookieFirst NBA season. Draft position, age and college production guide the estimate.High error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations. | −1.93 | 927 |
Projected West
SeedProjected conference finish by projected wins. Seeds 1–6 make the playoffs; 7–10 go to the play-in.TeamClick a team to open its full outlook: odds, range of outcomes, team profile and rotation.WinsProjected regular-season wins, adding up each game’s win chance across the full 82-game schedule.PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 1
Thunder61.1±6.6>99% - 2
Spurs54.7±7.197% - 3
Rockets52.7±7.296% - 4
Nuggets45.4±8.176% - 5
Trail Blazers44.7±8.274% - 6
Timberwolves42.1±7.466% - Play-in · seeds 7–10
- 7
Warriors41.5±7.462% - 8
Lakers40.3±7.854% - 9
Suns37.3±7.340% - 10Mavericks36.5±7.937%
- Outside the play-in
- 11
Grizzlies34.7±7.428% - 12
Clippers33.1±7.122% - 13
Jazz32.8±7.421% - 14
Pelicans32.7±7.822% - 15
Kings27.7±6.87%
Season context
- ScheduleWins gained or lost from this team’s schedule versus a balanced one. Positive means an easier schedule.
- −0.3 wins5th-hardest
- Rotation ageAverage age of the rotation, weighted by estimated minutes. Players expected to play more count more.
- 25.2Weighted by minutes
New coachFirst full season with a new head coach. Such teams have been less predictable, so the range is wider; projected wins don’t change.: Dusty May, a first-time head coach (was Michigan head coach). Expect a wider range of outcomes.