Tobi Lawal 2026–27 projection
Dallas MavericksFAge 23.4Current age in years, from his birth date.
−2.40
−3.71−1.08ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.Per 100 possessions0 = league average
Middle 80%Middle 80% of his possible Impact this season, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player. of outcomes · ±1.02Spread of his possible Impact, one standard deviation. Smaller means we are more sure.High error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations.
A wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations.Rookie: no NBA minutes yet.
Playing time
Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
99
0–242Middle 80% of simulated season minutes, including health, role and competition for playing time.
GamesExpected games played, allowing for health and role, to the nearest game.
20
0–40Middle 80% of simulated games played.
Minutes a gameEstimated minutes per game played.
5.0
AvailabilityChance of playing at least 75% of estimated minutes. Includes health, role and rotation competition; not the chance of staying healthy.
63%
Small numbers under each total are the middle 80% of outcomes.
Where Impact comes from
JAYLENOur player impact rating, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−2.48Our player impact rating
Expected EPMDunks & Threes’ estimate of current impact from career data, per 100 possessions versus average.
−2.37From Dunks & Threes
Impact blends two ratings: 22% JAYLEN and 78% Expected EPM, each aged forward a year.
Rookie estimate
No NBA games yet, so his estimate comes from his draft slot, age and college production.
Draft pickOverall pick in the NBA draft. Blank means undrafted.
No. 48
College
Virginia Tech
2025–26 · 23 games
Above-average chanceModeled chance this rookie rates above an average NBA player this season.
1%
Similar past prospectsPast prospects with a similar draft slot, age and college production, and their rookie-year Impact. Examples, not predictions.
| Player | Rookie year | Pick | ImpactHis Impact in his rookie season, per 100 possessions versus an average player. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Poythress | 2016–17 | – | −2.55 |
| Jericho Sims | 2021–22 | 58 | −1.97 |
| Toumani Camara | 2023–24 | 52 | −1.06 |
How he joinedHow the player joined his current team, from the official roster.
Drafted No. 48 in 2026
Mavericks teammates
- PlayerImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.MinEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
- Cooper FlaggFImpact +1.16Estimated minutes 2,317
- Max ChristieGImpact −1.44Estimated minutes 2,028
- P.J. WashingtonFImpact −0.53Estimated minutes 1,746
- Naji MarshallFImpact −0.31Estimated minutes 1,739
- Kyrie IrvingGImpact +2.64Estimated minutes 1,686
- Morez Johnson Jr.FImpact −1.54Estimated minutes 1,653
- Zaccharie RisacherFImpact −1.45Estimated minutes 1,380
- Santi AldamaF-CImpact −0.41Estimated minutes 1,341
- Daniel GaffordF-CImpact +0.58Estimated minutes 1,245
- Tarik BiberovicFImpact −1.93Estimated minutes 927
›9 more on the roster
- Sergio de LarreaGImpact −2.14Estimated minutes 862
- Dereck Lively IICImpact +3.01Estimated minutes 820
- Marcus SasserGImpact −1.21Estimated minutes 720
- Caleb MartinFImpact −2.36Estimated minutes 378
- Moussa CisseCImpact −2.43Estimated minutes 319
- Jett HowardGImpact −2.48Estimated minutes 231
- John PoulakidasGImpact −1.54Estimated minutes 99
- Seth LundyG-FImpact −2.51Estimated minutes 90
- Dwight PowellF-CImpact −1.75Estimated minutes 0
Ranges assume he plays. Impact is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player (0 = average).