Marvin Bagley III 2026–27 projection
Denver NuggetsFAge 27.5Current age in years, from his birth date.
−1.27
−2.37−0.15ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.Per 100 possessions0 = league average
Middle 80%Middle 80% of his possible Impact this season, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player. of outcomes · ±0.85Spread of his possible Impact, one standard deviation. Smaller means we are more sure.
Playing time
Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
998
409–1,456Middle 80% of simulated season minutes, including health, role and competition for playing time.
GamesExpected games played, allowing for health and role, to the nearest game.
65
23–82Middle 80% of simulated games played.
Minutes a gameEstimated minutes per game played.
15.3
AvailabilityChance of playing at least 75% of estimated minutes. Includes health, role and rotation competition; not the chance of staying healthy.
75%
Small numbers under each total are the middle 80% of outcomes.
Where Impact comes from
JAYLENOur player impact rating, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−0.55Our player impact rating
Expected EPMDunks & Threes’ estimate of current impact from career data, per 100 possessions versus average.
−1.47From Dunks & Threes
Impact blends two ratings: 22% JAYLEN and 78% Expected EPM, each aged forward a year.
Rating historyHis past seasons in the two ratings behind Impact, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−5
−4
−3
−2
−1
Avg
+1
18–1919–2020–2121–2222–2323–2424–2525–2626–27›Season by season
| Season | Age | Min | Games | JAYLEN | Exp. EPM | Actual EPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 26 | 1,201 | 60 | −0.57 | −1.81 | −0.77 |
| 2024–25 | 25 | 265 | 31 | −1.04 | −1.18 | −0.63 |
| 2023–24 | 24 | 1,053 | 50 | −1.00 | −1.23 | −0.58 |
| 2022–23 | 23 | 989 | 42 | −1.67 | −1.80 | −0.88 |
| 2021–22 | 22 | 1,146 | 48 | −2.31 | −1.30 | −0.87 |
| 2020–21 | 21 | 1,112 | 43 | −1.12 | −0.55 | −0.68 |
| 2019–20 | 20 | 334 | 13 | −2.65 | −0.90 | −2.33 |
| 2018–19 | 19 | 1,568 | 62 | −3.98 | −0.49 | −1.15 |
How he joinedHow the player joined his current team, from the official roster.
Signed July 15, 2026
Nuggets teammates
- PlayerImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.MinEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
- Nikola JokićCImpact +6.49Estimated minutes 2,354
- Jamal MurrayGImpact +1.48Estimated minutes 2,172
- Christian BraunGImpact +1.08Estimated minutes 2,074
- DeMar DeRozanG-FImpact −1.07Estimated minutes 1,882
- Cameron JohnsonFImpact +0.93Estimated minutes 1,853
- Aaron GordonFImpact +0.91Estimated minutes 1,540
- Spencer JonesFImpact −2.32Estimated minutes 1,472
- Tyus JonesGImpact −1.84Estimated minutes 1,285
- Julian StrawtherGImpact −2.39Estimated minutes 1,065
- Alpha DialloGImpact −1.73Estimated minutes 904
›10 more on the roster
- Zeke NnajiF-CImpact −2.34Estimated minutes 383
- Trevon BrazileFImpact −1.72Estimated minutes 361
- Lonnie Walker IVG-FImpact −2.36Estimated minutes 346
- DaRon Holmes IIFImpact −1.51Estimated minutes 324
- KJ SimpsonGImpact −2.98Estimated minutes 228
- Bryce HopkinsFImpact −1.99Estimated minutes 168
- Cam WhitmoreFImpact −0.11Estimated minutes 139
- Coleman HawkinsFImpact −1.74Estimated minutes 44
- Dane GoodwinGImpact −1.88Estimated minutes 44
- Emanuel MillerFImpact −3.14Estimated minutes 44
Ranges assume he plays. Impact is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player (0 = average).