Denver Nuggets 2026–27 projection
4th in the West · Northwest
45.4±8.1How far a typical season lands from the projection, in wins (one standard deviation). Bigger means a wider range. projected wins
Likely playoff teamProjected wins45–37 record
- Net ratingProjected point differential per game: points scored minus points allowed. Positive means outscoring opponents.
- +1.9
- Likely winsThe middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 35–55
- Minutes backShare of last season’s team minutes played by players still on this roster. Retained injured players count; new arrivals don’t.
- 61%
Range of outcomesEvery simulated season for this team. The bright middle is where 80% of seasons land; the dot is the projection.
Middle 80% of simulated seasons: 35 to 55 wins. Worst 5% average 28 wins; best 5% average 61 wins.
- Worst 5%Average wins in the unluckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 28
- Middle 80%The middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 35–55
- Best 5%Average wins in the luckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 61
Biggest swing playersPlayers whose uncertain performance or availability moves this team’s strength the most.: Nikola Jokić, Christian Braun and Jamal Murray.
Postseason chances
- 76%PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 60%Top 6Chance to finish first through sixth in the conference: an automatic playoff spot.
- 28%Play-inChance to finish seventh through tenth and enter the play-in, whether or not the team advances.
- 3%No. 1 seedChance to finish first in the conference in the regular season.
Team profileScores run 1–100 across the 30 teams, keeping the real gaps between them. Not a percentile. The tick marks the league average.
1–100 scale
- SpacingThree-point threat: projected threes made per 100 possessions, weighted by each player’s estimated minutes.
- ReboundingShare of missed shots this rotation should grab, from players’ own rebounding and how teams rebound with them on court.
- Rim defenseRim protection from shot-contest data and how often opponents reach the rim with each player on the court.
- CreationHow much scoring and playmaking the rotation carries: shots, free-throw trips and assists per 100 possessions. More is not automatically better.
- Age riskWins this team could lose in a bad year for its older players (the worst 10% of cases). A what-if, not a prediction. The most in the league.: −5.3 wins in a bad year for the veterans
Projected rotation
| PlayerTap a row for a quick look. The name opens his full page. | ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average. | Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time. |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola JokićC · 31.6Low error barsA narrower Impact range than most, backed by a large recent NBA sample at a prime age. | +6.49 | 2,354 |
| Jamal MurrayG · 29.6Low error barsA narrower Impact range than most, backed by a large recent NBA sample at a prime age. | +1.48 | 2,172 |
| Christian BraunG · 25.4 | +1.08 | 2,074 |
| DeMar DeRozanG-F · 37.1 | −1.07 | 1,882 |
| Cameron JohnsonF · 30.6 | +0.93 | 1,853 |
| Aaron GordonF · 31.0Injury flagHistorical right-hamstring strain and calf trouble. Reports readiness for 2026-27 | +0.91 | 1,540 |
| Spencer JonesF · 25.3 | −2.32 | 1,472 |
| Tyus JonesG · 30.4 | −1.84 | 1,285 |
| Julian StrawtherG · 24.4 | −2.39 | 1,065 |
| Marvin Bagley IIIF · 27.5 | −1.27 | 998 |
Projected West
SeedProjected conference finish by projected wins. Seeds 1–6 make the playoffs; 7–10 go to the play-in.TeamClick a team to open its full outlook: odds, range of outcomes, team profile and rotation.WinsProjected regular-season wins, adding up each game’s win chance across the full 82-game schedule.PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 1
Thunder61.1±6.6>99% - 2
Spurs54.7±7.197% - 3
Rockets52.7±7.296% - 4Nuggets45.4±8.176%
- 5
Trail Blazers44.7±8.274% - 6
Timberwolves42.1±7.466% - Play-in · seeds 7–10
- 7
Warriors41.5±7.462% - 8
Lakers40.3±7.854% - 9
Suns37.3±7.340% - 10
Mavericks36.5±7.937% - Outside the play-in
- 11
Grizzlies34.7±7.428% - 12
Clippers33.1±7.122% - 13
Jazz32.8±7.421% - 14
Pelicans32.7±7.822% - 15
Kings27.7±6.87%
Season context
- ScheduleWins gained or lost from this team’s schedule versus a balanced one. Positive means an easier schedule.
- +0.1 wins15th-hardest
- Rotation ageAverage age of the rotation, weighted by estimated minutes. Players expected to play more count more.
- 29.2Weighted by minutes