Rafael Castro 2026–27 projection
Houston RocketsCAge 23.5Current age in years, from his birth date.
−1.71
−3.01−0.42ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.Per 100 possessions0 = league average
Middle 80%Middle 80% of his possible Impact this season, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player. of outcomes · ±1.02Spread of his possible Impact, one standard deviation. Smaller means we are more sure.
Playing time
Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
37
0–167Middle 80% of simulated season minutes, including health, role and competition for playing time.
GamesExpected games played, allowing for health and role, to the nearest game.
8
0–28Middle 80% of simulated games played.
Minutes a gameEstimated minutes per game played.
4.6
AvailabilityChance of playing at least 75% of estimated minutes. Includes health, role and rotation competition; not the chance of staying healthy.
65%
Small numbers under each total are the middle 80% of outcomes.
Where Impact comes from
JAYLENOur player impact rating, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−1.70Our player impact rating
Expected EPMDunks & Threes’ estimate of current impact from career data, per 100 possessions versus average.
−1.71From Dunks & Threes
Impact blends two ratings: 22% JAYLEN and 78% Expected EPM, each aged forward a year.
Rookie estimate
No NBA games yet, so his estimate comes from his draft slot, age and college production.
Draft pickOverall pick in the NBA draft. Blank means undrafted.
Undrafted
College
George Washington
2025–26 · 28 games
Above-average chanceModeled chance this rookie rates above an average NBA player this season.
5%
Similar past prospectsPast prospects with a similar draft slot, age and college production, and their rookie-year Impact. Examples, not predictions.
| Player | Rookie year | Pick | ImpactHis Impact in his rookie season, per 100 possessions versus an average player. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Silva | 2019–20 | – | −3.44 |
| Omer Yurtseven | 2021–22 | – | −0.16 |
| Jordan Bell | 2017–18 | 38 | −0.21 |
How he joinedHow the player joined his current team, from the official roster.
Signed August 26, 2026
Rockets teammates
- PlayerImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.MinEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
- Amen ThompsonG-FImpact +2.77Estimated minutes 2,463
- Jabari Smith Jr.FImpact +0.63Estimated minutes 2,381
- Kevin DurantFImpact +1.73Estimated minutes 2,237
- Alperen SengunCImpact +1.61Estimated minutes 2,207
- Fred VanVleetGImpact +1.90Estimated minutes 1,881
- Reed SheppardGImpact −0.57Estimated minutes 1,642
- Marcus SmartGImpact +0.84Estimated minutes 1,532
- Tari EasonFImpact +0.87Estimated minutes 1,489
- Bogdan BogdanovićGImpact −0.65Estimated minutes 1,080
- Steven AdamsCImpact +0.14Estimated minutes 1,016
›8 more on the roster
- Clint CapelaCImpact −0.68Estimated minutes 542
- Bruce ThorntonGImpact −1.70Estimated minutes 497
- Jae'Sean TateFImpact −2.24Estimated minutes 306
- Isaiah CrawfordFImpact −3.20Estimated minutes 111
- Quadir CopelandGImpact −2.07Estimated minutes 106
- Julian PhillipsFImpact −1.41Estimated minutes 54
- Oscar TshiebweF-CImpact −1.77Estimated minutes 54
- Sean PedullaGImpact −1.96Estimated minutes 45
Ranges assume he plays. Impact is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player (0 = average).