Tarris Reed Jr. 2026–27 projection
San Antonio SpursCAge 23.1Current age in years, from his birth date.
−1.31
−2.78+0.15ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.Per 100 possessions0 = league average
Middle 80%Middle 80% of his possible Impact this season, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player. of outcomes · ±1.13Spread of his possible Impact, one standard deviation. Smaller means we are more sure.High error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations.
A wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations.Rookie: no NBA minutes yet.
Playing time
Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
421
48–728Middle 80% of simulated season minutes, including health, role and competition for playing time.
GamesExpected games played, allowing for health and role, to the nearest game.
47
5–67Middle 80% of simulated games played.
Minutes a gameEstimated minutes per game played.
9.0
AvailabilityChance of playing at least 75% of estimated minutes. Includes health, role and rotation competition; not the chance of staying healthy.
68%
Small numbers under each total are the middle 80% of outcomes.
Where Impact comes from
JAYLENOur player impact rating, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−1.52Our player impact rating
Expected EPMDunks & Threes’ estimate of current impact from career data, per 100 possessions versus average.
−1.25From Dunks & Threes
Impact blends two ratings: 22% JAYLEN and 78% Expected EPM, each aged forward a year.
Rookie estimate
No NBA games yet, so his estimate comes from his draft slot, age and college production.
Draft pickOverall pick in the NBA draft. Blank means undrafted.
No. 26
College
Connecticut
2025–26 · 35 games
Above-average chanceModeled chance this rookie rates above an average NBA player this season.
12%
Similar past prospectsPast prospects with a similar draft slot, age and college production, and their rookie-year Impact. Examples, not predictions.
| Player | Rookie year | Pick | ImpactHis Impact in his rookie season, per 100 possessions versus an average player. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 2016–17 | 27 | −1.95 |
| Mason Plumlee | 2013–14 | 22 | −1.04 |
| Jonathan Mogbo | 2024–25 | 31 | −2.84 |
How he joinedHow the player joined his current team, from the official roster.
Draft rights acquired from the Nuggets on June 23, 2026
Spurs teammates
- PlayerImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.MinEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
- Stephon CastleGImpact +1.28Estimated minutes 2,036
- Victor WembanyamaF-CImpact +6.25Estimated minutes 1,992
- De'Aaron FoxGImpact +1.55Estimated minutes 1,979
- Dylan HarperGImpact +2.40Estimated minutes 1,920
- Julian ChampagnieFImpact +1.15Estimated minutes 1,864
- Devin VassellG-FImpact +0.54Estimated minutes 1,827
- Tobias HarrisFImpact +0.71Estimated minutes 1,775
- Keldon JohnsonF-GImpact −1.10Estimated minutes 1,455
- Luke KornetC-FImpact +0.30Estimated minutes 1,257
- Harrison BarnesFImpact −1.09Estimated minutes 1,164
›10 more on the roster
- Carter BryantFImpact −1.58Estimated minutes 1,104
- Jordan McLaughlinGImpact −1.38Estimated minutes 281
- Ja'Kobi GillespieGImpact −2.01Estimated minutes 276
- David Jones GarciaGImpact −2.02Estimated minutes 128
- Maliq BrownFImpact −1.49Estimated minutes 112
- Jayden QuaintanceFImpact −2.21Estimated minutes 51
- Taelon PeterGImpact −3.31Estimated minutes 38
- Jon ElmoreGImpact −1.63Estimated minutes 0
- Malik WilliamsCImpact −2.85Estimated minutes 0
- R.J. DavisGImpact −2.00Estimated minutes 0
Ranges assume he plays. Impact is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player (0 = average).