San Antonio Spurs 2026–27 projection
2nd in the West · Southwest
54.7±7.1How far a typical season lands from the projection, in wins (one standard deviation). Bigger means a wider range. projected wins
Near-lock for a top-6 seedProjected wins55–27 record
- Net ratingProjected point differential per game: points scored minus points allowed. Positive means outscoring opponents.
- +6.1
- Likely winsThe middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 45–63
- Minutes backShare of last season’s team minutes played by players still on this roster. Retained injured players count; new arrivals don’t.
- 94%
Range of outcomesEvery simulated season for this team. The bright middle is where 80% of seasons land; the dot is the projection.
Middle 80% of simulated seasons: 45 to 63 wins. Worst 5% average 39 wins; best 5% average 67 wins.
- Worst 5%Average wins in the unluckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 39
- Middle 80%The middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 45–63
- Best 5%Average wins in the luckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 67
Biggest swing playersPlayers whose uncertain performance or availability moves this team’s strength the most.: Victor Wembanyama, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle.
Postseason chances
- 97%PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 93%Top 6Chance to finish first through sixth in the conference: an automatic playoff spot.
- 7%Play-inChance to finish seventh through tenth and enter the play-in, whether or not the team advances.
- 19%No. 1 seedChance to finish first in the conference in the regular season.
Team profileScores run 1–100 across the 30 teams, keeping the real gaps between them. Not a percentile. The tick marks the league average.
1–100 scale
- SpacingThree-point threat: projected threes made per 100 possessions, weighted by each player’s estimated minutes.
- ReboundingShare of missed shots this rotation should grab, from players’ own rebounding and how teams rebound with them on court.
- Rim defenseRim protection from shot-contest data and how often opponents reach the rim with each player on the court.
- CreationHow much scoring and playmaking the rotation carries: shots, free-throw trips and assists per 100 possessions. More is not automatically better.
- Age riskWins this team could lose in a bad year for its older players (the worst 10% of cases). A what-if, not a prediction. 14th-least of 30 teams.: −1.7 wins in a bad year for the veterans
Projected rotation
| PlayerTap a row for a quick look. The name opens his full page. | ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average. | Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time. |
|---|---|---|
| Stephon CastleG · 21.9 | +1.28 | 2,036 |
| Victor WembanyamaF-C · 22.7Injury flagHistorical right-shoulder deep vein thrombosis. Returned after 2025 clearance; documented 2026 offseason court participationHigh error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations. | +6.25 | 1,992 |
| De'Aaron FoxG · 28.8Low error barsA narrower Impact range than most, backed by a large recent NBA sample at a prime age. | +1.55 | 1,979 |
| Dylan HarperG · 20.6 | +2.40 | 1,920 |
| Julian ChampagnieF · 25.2 | +1.15 | 1,864 |
| Devin VassellG-F · 26.1 | +0.54 | 1,827 |
| Tobias HarrisF · 34.2 | +0.71 | 1,775 |
| Keldon JohnsonF-G · 26.9 | −1.10 | 1,455 |
| Luke KornetC-F · 31.2 | +0.30 | 1,257 |
| Harrison BarnesF · 34.3 | −1.09 | 1,164 |
Projected West
SeedProjected conference finish by projected wins. Seeds 1–6 make the playoffs; 7–10 go to the play-in.TeamClick a team to open its full outlook: odds, range of outcomes, team profile and rotation.WinsProjected regular-season wins, adding up each game’s win chance across the full 82-game schedule.PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 1
Thunder61.1±6.6>99% - 2Spurs54.7±7.197%
- 3
Rockets52.7±7.296% - 4
Nuggets45.4±8.176% - 5
Trail Blazers44.7±8.274% - 6
Timberwolves42.1±7.466% - Play-in · seeds 7–10
- 7
Warriors41.5±7.462% - 8
Lakers40.3±7.854% - 9
Suns37.3±7.340% - 10
Mavericks36.5±7.937% - Outside the play-in
- 11
Grizzlies34.7±7.428% - 12
Clippers33.1±7.122% - 13
Jazz32.8±7.421% - 14
Pelicans32.7±7.822% - 15
Kings27.7±6.87%
Season context
- ScheduleWins gained or lost from this team’s schedule versus a balanced one. Positive means an easier schedule.
- +0.2 wins5th-easiest
- Rotation ageAverage age of the rotation, weighted by estimated minutes. Players expected to play more count more.
- 26.2Weighted by minutes