Bennett Stirtz 2026–27 projection
Oklahoma City ThunderGAge 23.0Current age in years, from his birth date.
−1.92
−3.34−0.46ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.Per 100 possessions0 = league average
Middle 80%Middle 80% of his possible Impact this season, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player. of outcomes · ±1.13Spread of his possible Impact, one standard deviation. Smaller means we are more sure.High error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations.
A wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations.Rookie: no NBA minutes yet.
Playing time
Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
816
284–1,207Middle 80% of simulated season minutes, including health, role and competition for playing time.
GamesExpected games played, allowing for health and role, to the nearest game.
62
19–82Middle 80% of simulated games played.
Minutes a gameEstimated minutes per game played.
13.2
AvailabilityChance of playing at least 75% of estimated minutes. Includes health, role and rotation competition; not the chance of staying healthy.
72%
Small numbers under each total are the middle 80% of outcomes.
Where Impact comes from
JAYLENOur player impact rating, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−2.32Our player impact rating
Expected EPMDunks & Threes’ estimate of current impact from career data, per 100 possessions versus average.
−1.81From Dunks & Threes
Impact blends two ratings: 22% JAYLEN and 78% Expected EPM, each aged forward a year.
Rookie estimate
No NBA games yet, so his estimate comes from his draft slot, age and college production.
Draft pickOverall pick in the NBA draft. Blank means undrafted.
No. 16
College
Iowa
2025–26 · 37 games
Above-average chanceModeled chance this rookie rates above an average NBA player this season.
4%
Similar past prospectsPast prospects with a similar draft slot, age and college production, and their rookie-year Impact. Examples, not predictions.
| Player | Rookie year | Pick | ImpactHis Impact in his rookie season, per 100 possessions versus an average player. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jerian Grant | 2015–16 | 19 | −2.07 |
| Marcus Sasser | 2023–24 | 25 | −2.57 |
| Payton Pritchard | 2020–21 | 26 | −1.24 |
How he joinedHow the player joined his current team, from the official roster.
Draft rights acquired from the Grizzlies on June 23, 2026
Thunder teammates
- PlayerImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.MinEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGImpact +6.04Estimated minutes 2,287
- Jalen WilliamsG-FImpact +2.80Estimated minutes 2,059
- Cason WallaceGImpact +1.91Estimated minutes 2,026
- Chet HolmgrenC-FImpact +4.17Estimated minutes 1,863
- Ajay MitchellGImpact +2.47Estimated minutes 1,781
- Isaiah HartensteinC-FImpact +2.48Estimated minutes 1,576
- Jared McCainGImpact −0.69Estimated minutes 1,400
- Jaylin WilliamsFImpact +0.35Estimated minutes 1,314
- Alex CarusoGImpact +1.22Estimated minutes 1,069
- Kenrich WilliamsG-FImpact −0.88Estimated minutes 821
›10 more on the roster
- Nikola TopićGImpact −2.62Estimated minutes 680
- Aday MaraCImpact −1.17Estimated minutes 643
- Thomas SorberCImpact −2.42Estimated minutes 570
- Brooks BarnhizerGImpact −3.99Estimated minutes 449
- Otega OwehGImpact −2.26Estimated minutes 164
- Josh DixImpact −2.50Estimated minutes 162
- Andrew HolifieldImpact −2.57Estimated minutes 0
- Christoph TillyImpact −2.07Estimated minutes 0
- Robert McCray VGImpact −2.11Estimated minutes 0
- Zhaire SmithGImpact −1.50Estimated minutes 0
Ranges assume he plays. Impact is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player (0 = average).