Oklahoma City Thunder 2026–27 projection
1st in the West · Northwest
61.1±6.6How far a typical season lands from the projection, in wins (one standard deviation). Bigger means a wider range. projected wins
Near-lock for a top-6 seedProjected wins61–21 record
- Net ratingProjected point differential per game: points scored minus points allowed. Positive means outscoring opponents.
- +9.3
- Likely winsThe middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 52–69
- Minutes backShare of last season’s team minutes played by players still on this roster. Retained injured players count; new arrivals don’t.
- 71%
Range of outcomesEvery simulated season for this team. The bright middle is where 80% of seasons land; the dot is the projection.
Middle 80% of simulated seasons: 52 to 69 wins. Worst 5% average 46 wins; best 5% average 72 wins.
- Worst 5%Average wins in the unluckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 46
- Middle 80%The middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 52–69
- Best 5%Average wins in the luckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 72
Biggest swing playersPlayers whose uncertain performance or availability moves this team’s strength the most.: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams.
Postseason chances
- >99%PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 99%Top 6Chance to finish first through sixth in the conference: an automatic playoff spot.
- 1%Play-inChance to finish seventh through tenth and enter the play-in, whether or not the team advances.
- 59%No. 1 seedChance to finish first in the conference in the regular season.
Team profileScores run 1–100 across the 30 teams, keeping the real gaps between them. Not a percentile. The tick marks the league average.
1–100 scale
- SpacingThree-point threat: projected threes made per 100 possessions, weighted by each player’s estimated minutes.
- ReboundingShare of missed shots this rotation should grab, from players’ own rebounding and how teams rebound with them on court.
- Rim defenseRim protection from shot-contest data and how often opponents reach the rim with each player on the court.
- CreationHow much scoring and playmaking the rotation carries: shots, free-throw trips and assists per 100 possessions. More is not automatically better.
- Age riskWins this team could lose in a bad year for its older players (the worst 10% of cases). A what-if, not a prediction. 3rd-least of 30 teams.: −0.9 wins in a bad year for the veterans
Projected rotation
| PlayerTap a row for a quick look. The name opens his full page. | ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average. | Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time. |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · 28.2 | +6.04 | 2,287 |
| Jalen WilliamsG-F · 25.4Injury flagPrior injury-limited season; no newly established diagnosis. Presented as healthy at 2026 media day | +2.80 | 2,059 |
| Cason WallaceG · 22.9 | +1.91 | 2,026 |
| Chet HolmgrenC-F · 24.4Injury flagHistorical right iliac-wing fracture. Returned February 2025; later full-season performance observed | +4.17 | 1,863 |
| Ajay MitchellG · 24.2High error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations. | +2.47 | 1,781 |
| Isaiah HartensteinC-F · 28.4 | +2.48 | 1,576 |
| Jared McCainG · 22.6 | −0.69 | 1,400 |
| Jaylin WilliamsF · 24.2 | +0.35 | 1,314 |
| Alex CarusoG · 32.6 | +1.22 | 1,069 |
| Kenrich WilliamsG-F · 31.8 | −0.88 | 821 |
Projected West
SeedProjected conference finish by projected wins. Seeds 1–6 make the playoffs; 7–10 go to the play-in.TeamClick a team to open its full outlook: odds, range of outcomes, team profile and rotation.WinsProjected regular-season wins, adding up each game’s win chance across the full 82-game schedule.PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 1Thunder61.1±6.6>99%
- 2
Spurs54.7±7.197% - 3
Rockets52.7±7.296% - 4
Nuggets45.4±8.176% - 5
Trail Blazers44.7±8.274% - 6
Timberwolves42.1±7.466% - Play-in · seeds 7–10
- 7
Warriors41.5±7.462% - 8
Lakers40.3±7.854% - 9
Suns37.3±7.340% - 10
Mavericks36.5±7.937% - Outside the play-in
- 11
Grizzlies34.7±7.428% - 12
Clippers33.1±7.122% - 13
Jazz32.8±7.421% - 14
Pelicans32.7±7.822% - 15
Kings27.7±6.87%
Season context
- ScheduleWins gained or lost from this team’s schedule versus a balanced one. Positive means an easier schedule.
- +0.3 winsEasiest in the league
- Rotation ageAverage age of the rotation, weighted by estimated minutes. Players expected to play more count more.
- 25.4Weighted by minutes