Chet Holmgren 2026–27 projection
Oklahoma City ThunderC-FAge 24.4Current age in years, from his birth date.
+4.17
+2.95+5.43ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.Per 100 possessions0 = league average
Middle 80%Middle 80% of his possible Impact this season, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player. of outcomes · ±0.96Spread of his possible Impact, one standard deviation. Smaller means we are more sure.
Playing time
Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
1,863
1,385–2,506Middle 80% of simulated season minutes, including health, role and competition for playing time.
GamesExpected games played, allowing for health and role, to the nearest game.
66
45–77Middle 80% of simulated games played.
Minutes a gameEstimated minutes per game played.
28.1
AvailabilityChance of playing at least 75% of estimated minutes. Includes health, role and rotation competition; not the chance of staying healthy.
90%
Small numbers under each total are the middle 80% of outcomes.
Where Impact comes from
JAYLENOur player impact rating, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
+3.72Our player impact rating
Expected EPMDunks & Threes’ estimate of current impact from career data, per 100 possessions versus average.
+4.30From Dunks & Threes
Impact blends two ratings: 22% JAYLEN and 78% Expected EPM, each aged forward a year.
Rating historyHis past seasons in the two ratings behind Impact, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−2
Avg
+2
+4
+6
+8
22–2323–2424–2525–2626–27›Season by season
| Season | Age | Min | Games | JAYLEN | Exp. EPM | Actual EPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 23 | 1,997 | 69 | +3.70 | +4.58 | +5.96 |
| 2024–25 | 22 | 877 | 32 | +2.88 | +3.53 | +3.33 |
| 2023–24 | 21 | 2,413 | 82 | +2.68 | +3.12 | +2.90 |
| 2022–23 | 20 | 0 | – | – | −1.67 | – |
Injury flagFlagged in our injury review. Hover the flag for the injury and its current status.
Historical right iliac-wing fracture. Returned February 2025; later full-season performance observed.
- Injury date
- November 10, 2024
How he joinedHow the player joined his current team, from the official roster.
Drafted No. 2 in 2022
Thunder teammates
- PlayerImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.MinEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGImpact +6.04Estimated minutes 2,287
- Jalen WilliamsG-FImpact +2.80Estimated minutes 2,059
- Cason WallaceGImpact +1.91Estimated minutes 2,026
- Ajay MitchellGImpact +2.47Estimated minutes 1,781
- Isaiah HartensteinC-FImpact +2.48Estimated minutes 1,576
- Jared McCainGImpact −0.69Estimated minutes 1,400
- Jaylin WilliamsFImpact +0.35Estimated minutes 1,314
- Alex CarusoGImpact +1.22Estimated minutes 1,069
- Kenrich WilliamsG-FImpact −0.88Estimated minutes 821
- Bennett StirtzGImpact −1.92Estimated minutes 816
›10 more on the roster
- Nikola TopićGImpact −2.62Estimated minutes 680
- Aday MaraCImpact −1.17Estimated minutes 643
- Thomas SorberCImpact −2.42Estimated minutes 570
- Brooks BarnhizerGImpact −3.99Estimated minutes 449
- Otega OwehGImpact −2.26Estimated minutes 164
- Josh DixImpact −2.50Estimated minutes 162
- Andrew HolifieldImpact −2.57Estimated minutes 0
- Christoph TillyImpact −2.07Estimated minutes 0
- Robert McCray VGImpact −2.11Estimated minutes 0
- Zhaire SmithGImpact −1.50Estimated minutes 0
Ranges assume he plays. Impact is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player (0 = average).