Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2026–27 projection
Oklahoma City ThunderGAge 28.2Current age in years, from his birth date.
+6.04
+4.70+7.35ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.Per 100 possessions0 = league average
Middle 80%Middle 80% of his possible Impact this season, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player. of outcomes · ±1.02Spread of his possible Impact, one standard deviation. Smaller means we are more sure.
Playing time
Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
2,287
1,081–2,908Middle 80% of simulated season minutes, including health, role and competition for playing time.
GamesExpected games played, allowing for health and role, to the nearest game.
73
31–82Middle 80% of simulated games played.
Minutes a gameEstimated minutes per game played.
31.2
AvailabilityChance of playing at least 75% of estimated minutes. Includes health, role and rotation competition; not the chance of staying healthy.
76%
Small numbers under each total are the middle 80% of outcomes.
Where Impact comes from
JAYLENOur player impact rating, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
+4.28Our player impact rating
Expected EPMDunks & Threes’ estimate of current impact from career data, per 100 possessions versus average.
+6.53From Dunks & Threes
Impact blends two ratings: 22% JAYLEN and 78% Expected EPM, each aged forward a year.
Rating historyHis past seasons in the two ratings behind Impact, in points per 100 possessions versus an average player.
−8
−4
Avg
+4
+8
+12
18–1919–2020–2121–2222–2323–2424–2525–2626–27›Season by season
| Season | Age | Min | Games | JAYLEN | Exp. EPM | Actual EPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 27 | 2,259 | 68 | +4.62 | +7.02 | +9.35 |
| 2024–25 | 26 | 2,598 | 76 | +4.94 | +7.40 | +8.59 |
| 2023–24 | 25 | 2,553 | 75 | +3.22 | +5.88 | +7.70 |
| 2022–23 | 24 | 2,416 | 68 | +1.22 | +3.57 | +4.74 |
| 2021–22 | 23 | 1,942 | 56 | +1.10 | +1.32 | +1.41 |
| 2020–21 | 22 | 1,180 | 35 | −0.92 | +1.50 | +2.13 |
| 2019–20 | 21 | 2,428 | 70 | −1.33 | −0.15 | +0.58 |
| 2018–19 | 20 | 2,174 | 82 | −4.85 | −1.02 | −0.93 |
How he joinedHow the player joined his current team, from the official roster.
Traded from the Clippers on July 10, 2019
Thunder teammates
- PlayerImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average.MinEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time.
- Jalen WilliamsG-FImpact +2.80Estimated minutes 2,059
- Cason WallaceGImpact +1.91Estimated minutes 2,026
- Chet HolmgrenC-FImpact +4.17Estimated minutes 1,863
- Ajay MitchellGImpact +2.47Estimated minutes 1,781
- Isaiah HartensteinC-FImpact +2.48Estimated minutes 1,576
- Jared McCainGImpact −0.69Estimated minutes 1,400
- Jaylin WilliamsFImpact +0.35Estimated minutes 1,314
- Alex CarusoGImpact +1.22Estimated minutes 1,069
- Kenrich WilliamsG-FImpact −0.88Estimated minutes 821
- Bennett StirtzGImpact −1.92Estimated minutes 816
›10 more on the roster
- Nikola TopićGImpact −2.62Estimated minutes 680
- Aday MaraCImpact −1.17Estimated minutes 643
- Thomas SorberCImpact −2.42Estimated minutes 570
- Brooks BarnhizerGImpact −3.99Estimated minutes 449
- Otega OwehGImpact −2.26Estimated minutes 164
- Josh DixImpact −2.50Estimated minutes 162
- Andrew HolifieldImpact −2.57Estimated minutes 0
- Christoph TillyImpact −2.07Estimated minutes 0
- Robert McCray VGImpact −2.11Estimated minutes 0
- Zhaire SmithGImpact −1.50Estimated minutes 0
Ranges assume he plays. Impact is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player (0 = average).