Chicago Bulls 2026–27 projection
12th in the East · CentralNew coachFirst full season with a new head coach. Such teams have been less predictable, so the range is wider; projected wins don’t change.
34.4±7.9How far a typical season lands from the projection, in wins (one standard deviation). Bigger means a wider range. projected wins
Long shot for the playoffsProjected wins34–48 record
- Net ratingProjected point differential per game: points scored minus points allowed. Positive means outscoring opponents.
- −2.9
- Likely winsThe middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 24–45
- Minutes backShare of last season’s team minutes played by players still on this roster. Retained injured players count; new arrivals don’t.
- 55%
Range of outcomesEvery simulated season for this team. The bright middle is where 80% of seasons land; the dot is the projection.
Middle 80% of simulated seasons: 24 to 45 wins. Worst 5% average 19 wins; best 5% average 51 wins.
- Worst 5%Average wins in the unluckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 19
- Middle 80%The middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 24–45
- Best 5%Average wins in the luckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 51
Biggest swing playersPlayers whose uncertain performance or availability moves this team’s strength the most.: Caleb Wilson, Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis.
Postseason chances
- 25%PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 13%Top 6Chance to finish first through sixth in the conference: an automatic playoff spot.
- 28%Play-inChance to finish seventh through tenth and enter the play-in, whether or not the team advances.
- 1%No. 1 seedChance to finish first in the conference in the regular season.
Team profileScores run 1–100 across the 30 teams, keeping the real gaps between them. Not a percentile. The tick marks the league average.
1–100 scale
- SpacingThree-point threat: projected threes made per 100 possessions, weighted by each player’s estimated minutes.
- ReboundingShare of missed shots this rotation should grab, from players’ own rebounding and how teams rebound with them on court.
- Rim defenseRim protection from shot-contest data and how often opponents reach the rim with each player on the court.
- CreationHow much scoring and playmaking the rotation carries: shots, free-throw trips and assists per 100 possessions. More is not automatically better.
- Age riskWins this team could lose in a bad year for its older players (the worst 10% of cases). A what-if, not a prediction. 13th-least of 30 teams.: −1.7 wins in a bad year for the veterans
Projected rotation
| PlayerTap a row for a quick look. The name opens his full page. | ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average. | Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time. |
|---|---|---|
| Matas BuzelisF · 21.9 | −0.45 | 2,284 |
| Josh GiddeyG · 23.9 | +0.51 | 2,167 |
| Caleb WilsonF · 20.2RookieFirst NBA season. Draft position, age and college production guide the estimate.High error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations. | −1.23 | 2,031 |
| Nic ClaxtonC · 27.4 | −0.33 | 1,900 |
| Norman PowellG · 33.3 | +0.58 | 1,894 |
| Isaac OkoroF-G · 25.7 | −0.79 | 1,789 |
| Tre JonesG · 26.7 | +0.70 | 1,621 |
| Jalen SmithF-C · 26.5 | +0.57 | 1,242 |
| Zach CollinsF-C · 28.8 | −1.55 | 1,062 |
| Patrick WilliamsF · 25.1 | −2.81 | 953 |
Projected East
SeedProjected conference finish by projected wins. Seeds 1–6 make the playoffs; 7–10 go to the play-in.TeamClick a team to open its full outlook: odds, range of outcomes, team profile and rotation.WinsProjected regular-season wins, adding up each game’s win chance across the full 82-game schedule.PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 1
Celtics56.8±6.798% - 2
Raptors47.2±7.581% - 3
Pistons45.8±7.577% - 4
Knicks45.6±7.576% - 5
Cavaliers44.0±7.869% - 6
76ers42.9±7.663% - Play-in · seeds 7–10
- 7
Magic42.5±8.162% - 8
Hawks42.1±7.460% - 9
Heat41.2±7.656% - 10
Pacers41.0±7.655% - Outside the play-in
- 11
Hornets40.2±7.551% - 12Bulls34.4±7.925%
- 13
Bucks30.1±7.611% - 14
Wizards29.8±7.210% - 15
Nets29.1±7.07%
Season context
- ScheduleWins gained or lost from this team’s schedule versus a balanced one. Positive means an easier schedule.
- 0.0 wins13th-hardest
- Rotation ageAverage age of the rotation, weighted by estimated minutes. Players expected to play more count more.
- 25.6Weighted by minutes
New coachFirst full season with a new head coach. Such teams have been less predictable, so the range is wider; projected wins don’t change.: Tiago Splitter (was Portland interim head coach). Expect a wider range of outcomes.