Miami Heat 2026–27 projection
9th in the East · Southeast
41.2±7.6How far a typical season lands from the projection, in wins (one standard deviation). Bigger means a wider range. projected wins
On the playoff bubbleProjected wins41–41 record
- Net ratingProjected point differential per game: points scored minus points allowed. Positive means outscoring opponents.
- +0.1
- Likely winsThe middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 31–51
- Minutes backShare of last season’s team minutes played by players still on this roster. Retained injured players count; new arrivals don’t.
- 61%
Range of outcomesEvery simulated season for this team. The bright middle is where 80% of seasons land; the dot is the projection.
Middle 80% of simulated seasons: 31 to 51 wins. Worst 5% average 26 wins; best 5% average 57 wins.
- Worst 5%Average wins in the unluckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 26
- Middle 80%The middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 31–51
- Best 5%Average wins in the luckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 57
Biggest swing playersPlayers whose uncertain performance or availability moves this team’s strength the most.: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo and Davion Mitchell.
Postseason chances
- 56%PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 37%Top 6Chance to finish first through sixth in the conference: an automatic playoff spot.
- 36%Play-inChance to finish seventh through tenth and enter the play-in, whether or not the team advances.
- 2%No. 1 seedChance to finish first in the conference in the regular season.
Team profileScores run 1–100 across the 30 teams, keeping the real gaps between them. Not a percentile. The tick marks the league average.
1–100 scale
- SpacingThree-point threat: projected threes made per 100 possessions, weighted by each player’s estimated minutes.
- ReboundingShare of missed shots this rotation should grab, from players’ own rebounding and how teams rebound with them on court.
- Rim defenseRim protection from shot-contest data and how often opponents reach the rim with each player on the court.
- CreationHow much scoring and playmaking the rotation carries: shots, free-throw trips and assists per 100 possessions. More is not automatically better.
- Age riskWins this team could lose in a bad year for its older players (the worst 10% of cases). A what-if, not a prediction. 2nd-most of 30 teams.: −3.6 wins in a bad year for the veterans
Projected rotation
| PlayerTap a row for a quick look. The name opens his full page. | ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average. | Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time. |
|---|---|---|
| Bam AdebayoC-F · 29.2 | +3.04 | 2,180 |
| Davion MitchellG · 28.0 | −0.10 | 2,000 |
| Giannis AntetokounmpoF · 31.8Injury flagHistorical right-calf strain; left-knee hyperextension and bone bruise. Preparing for Miami camp; no fresh disabling injury verified | +5.13 | 1,987 |
| Andrew WigginsF · 31.6Low error barsA narrower Impact range than most, backed by a large recent NBA sample at a prime age. | −1.30 | 1,958 |
| Pelle LarssonG · 25.6 | −0.12 | 1,833 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.G · 34.5 | −1.70 | 1,759 |
| Bobby Portis Jr.F · 31.6 | −1.13 | 1,553 |
| Klay ThompsonG · 36.6 | −1.54 | 1,415 |
| Simone FontecchioF · 30.8 | −1.26 | 1,136 |
| Dru SmithG · 28.7 | −1.33 | 1,090 |
Projected East
SeedProjected conference finish by projected wins. Seeds 1–6 make the playoffs; 7–10 go to the play-in.TeamClick a team to open its full outlook: odds, range of outcomes, team profile and rotation.WinsProjected regular-season wins, adding up each game’s win chance across the full 82-game schedule.PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 1
Celtics56.8±6.798% - 2
Raptors47.2±7.581% - 3
Pistons45.8±7.577% - 4
Knicks45.6±7.576% - 5
Cavaliers44.0±7.869% - 6
76ers42.9±7.663% - Play-in · seeds 7–10
- 7
Magic42.5±8.162% - 8
Hawks42.1±7.460% - 9Heat41.2±7.656%
- 10
Pacers41.0±7.655% - Outside the play-in
- 11
Hornets40.2±7.551% - 12
Bulls34.4±7.925% - 13
Bucks30.1±7.611% - 14
Wizards29.8±7.210% - 15
Nets29.1±7.07%
Season context
- ScheduleWins gained or lost from this team’s schedule versus a balanced one. Positive means an easier schedule.
- +0.4 wins2nd-easiest
- Rotation ageAverage age of the rotation, weighted by estimated minutes. Players expected to play more count more.
- 30.0Weighted by minutes