Washington Wizards 2026–27 projection
14th in the East · Southeast
29.8±7.2How far a typical season lands from the projection, in wins (one standard deviation). Bigger means a wider range. projected wins
Headed for the lotteryProjected wins30–52 record
- Net ratingProjected point differential per game: points scored minus points allowed. Positive means outscoring opponents.
- −5.0
- Likely winsThe middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 21–39
- Minutes backShare of last season’s team minutes played by players still on this roster. Retained injured players count; new arrivals don’t.
- 73%
Range of outcomesEvery simulated season for this team. The bright middle is where 80% of seasons land; the dot is the projection.
Middle 80% of simulated seasons: 21 to 39 wins. Worst 5% average 16 wins; best 5% average 45 wins.
- Worst 5%Average wins in the unluckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 16
- Middle 80%The middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 21–39
- Best 5%Average wins in the luckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 45
Biggest swing playersPlayers whose uncertain performance or availability moves this team’s strength the most.: AJ Dybantsa, Trae Young and Anthony Davis.
Postseason chances
- 10%PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 4%Top 6Chance to finish first through sixth in the conference: an automatic playoff spot.
- 16%Play-inChance to finish seventh through tenth and enter the play-in, whether or not the team advances.
- <1%No. 1 seedChance to finish first in the conference in the regular season.
Team profileScores run 1–100 across the 30 teams, keeping the real gaps between them. Not a percentile. The tick marks the league average.
1–100 scale
- SpacingThree-point threat: projected threes made per 100 possessions, weighted by each player’s estimated minutes.
- ReboundingShare of missed shots this rotation should grab, from players’ own rebounding and how teams rebound with them on court.
- Rim defenseRim protection from shot-contest data and how often opponents reach the rim with each player on the court.
- CreationHow much scoring and playmaking the rotation carries: shots, free-throw trips and assists per 100 possessions. More is not automatically better.
- Age riskWins this team could lose in a bad year for its older players (the worst 10% of cases). A what-if, not a prediction. 12th-most of 30 teams.: −2.2 wins in a bad year for the veterans
Projected rotation
| PlayerTap a row for a quick look. The name opens his full page. | ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average. | Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time. |
|---|---|---|
| Trae YoungG · 28.0Injury flagPrior right knee/quadriceps and back problems. Return expected after 15-game 2025-26 season | +1.29 | 2,201 |
| AJ DybantsaF · 19.6RookieFirst NBA season. Draft position, age and college production guide the estimate.High error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations. | −1.32 | 2,156 |
| Kyshawn GeorgeF · 22.8 | −0.96 | 1,827 |
| Alex SarrC · 21.4 | −0.86 | 1,803 |
| Anthony DavisF-C · 33.5Injury flagLeft-hand ligament damage; prior calf strain. Return expected; only 20 games in prior season | +2.01 | 1,672 |
| Bilal CoulibalyG · 22.2 | −1.63 | 1,487 |
| Bub CarringtonG · 21.2 | −2.22 | 1,443 |
| Tre JohnsonG · 20.5 | −1.45 | 1,364 |
| Deandre AytonC · 28.2 | −1.04 | 1,199 |
| Will RileyF · 20.6 | −3.26 | 1,188 |
Projected East
SeedProjected conference finish by projected wins. Seeds 1–6 make the playoffs; 7–10 go to the play-in.TeamClick a team to open its full outlook: odds, range of outcomes, team profile and rotation.WinsProjected regular-season wins, adding up each game’s win chance across the full 82-game schedule.PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 1
Celtics56.8±6.798% - 2
Raptors47.2±7.581% - 3
Pistons45.8±7.577% - 4
Knicks45.6±7.576% - 5
Cavaliers44.0±7.869% - 6
76ers42.9±7.663% - Play-in · seeds 7–10
- 7
Magic42.5±8.162% - 8
Hawks42.1±7.460% - 9
Heat41.2±7.656% - 10
Pacers41.0±7.655% - Outside the play-in
- 11
Hornets40.2±7.551% - 12
Bulls34.4±7.925% - 13
Bucks30.1±7.611% - 14Wizards29.8±7.210%
- 15
Nets29.1±7.07%
Season context
- ScheduleWins gained or lost from this team’s schedule versus a balanced one. Positive means an easier schedule.
- −0.1 wins9th-hardest
- Rotation ageAverage age of the rotation, weighted by estimated minutes. Players expected to play more count more.
- 24.7Weighted by minutes