Golden State Warriors 2026–27 projection
7th in the West · Pacific
41.5±7.4How far a typical season lands from the projection, in wins (one standard deviation). Bigger means a wider range. projected wins
On the playoff bubbleProjected wins42–40 record
- Net ratingProjected point differential per game: points scored minus points allowed. Positive means outscoring opponents.
- +0.2
- Likely winsThe middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 32–51
- Minutes backShare of last season’s team minutes played by players still on this roster. Retained injured players count; new arrivals don’t.
- 77%
Range of outcomesEvery simulated season for this team. The bright middle is where 80% of seasons land; the dot is the projection.
Middle 80% of simulated seasons: 32 to 51 wins. Worst 5% average 26 wins; best 5% average 56 wins.
- Worst 5%Average wins in the unluckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 26
- Middle 80%The middle 80% of simulated seasons land in this range of wins.
- 32–51
- Best 5%Average wins in the luckiest 5% of simulated seasons.
- 56
Biggest swing playersPlayers whose uncertain performance or availability moves this team’s strength the most.: Yaxel Lendeborg, Brandin Podziemski and Stephen Curry.
Postseason chances
- 62%PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 41%Top 6Chance to finish first through sixth in the conference: an automatic playoff spot.
- 39%Play-inChance to finish seventh through tenth and enter the play-in, whether or not the team advances.
- 1%No. 1 seedChance to finish first in the conference in the regular season.
Team profileScores run 1–100 across the 30 teams, keeping the real gaps between them. Not a percentile. The tick marks the league average.
1–100 scale
- SpacingThree-point threat: projected threes made per 100 possessions, weighted by each player’s estimated minutes.
- ReboundingShare of missed shots this rotation should grab, from players’ own rebounding and how teams rebound with them on court.
- Rim defenseRim protection from shot-contest data and how often opponents reach the rim with each player on the court.
- CreationHow much scoring and playmaking the rotation carries: shots, free-throw trips and assists per 100 possessions. More is not automatically better.
- Age riskWins this team could lose in a bad year for its older players (the worst 10% of cases). A what-if, not a prediction. 4th-most of 30 teams.: −3.3 wins in a bad year for the veterans
Projected rotation
| PlayerTap a row for a quick look. The name opens his full page. | ImpactHow many points per 100 possessions he adds compared with an average player. 0 is average. | Est. minutesEstimated regular-season minutes, allowing for health, role and competition for playing time. |
|---|---|---|
| Brandin PodziemskiG · 23.6 | +1.25 | 2,053 |
| Yaxel LendeborgF · 24.0RookieFirst NBA season. Draft position, age and college production guide the estimate.High error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations. | −0.98 | 1,875 |
| Gui SantosF · 24.2 | +0.74 | 1,797 |
| Stephen CurryG · 38.5Injury flagHistorical right-knee condition. Preparing for camp after 27-game absence last season | +2.83 | 1,773 |
| Draymond GreenF · 36.6 | −0.93 | 1,645 |
| Will RichardG · 23.7 | −1.78 | 1,561 |
| De'Anthony MeltonG · 28.3 | +0.77 | 1,416 |
| Al HorfordC-F · 40.3 | −0.36 | 1,163 |
| Gary Payton IIG · 33.8 | −0.29 | 1,132 |
| Kristaps PorziņģisF-C · 31.1Injury flagUnspecified health issue. Out indefinitely at camp; no disclosed diagnosis or timetableHigh error barsA wider Impact range than most players in projected rotations. | +1.52 | 1,086 |
Projected West
SeedProjected conference finish by projected wins. Seeds 1–6 make the playoffs; 7–10 go to the play-in.TeamClick a team to open its full outlook: odds, range of outcomes, team profile and rotation.WinsProjected regular-season wins, adding up each game’s win chance across the full 82-game schedule.PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- 1
Thunder61.1±6.6>99% - 2
Spurs54.7±7.197% - 3
Rockets52.7±7.296% - 4
Nuggets45.4±8.176% - 5
Trail Blazers44.7±8.274% - 6
Timberwolves42.1±7.466% - Play-in · seeds 7–10
- 7Warriors41.5±7.462%
- 8
Lakers40.3±7.854% - 9
Suns37.3±7.340% - 10
Mavericks36.5±7.937% - Outside the play-in
- 11
Grizzlies34.7±7.428% - 12
Clippers33.1±7.122% - 13
Jazz32.8±7.421% - 14
Pelicans32.7±7.822% - 15
Kings27.7±6.87%
Season context
- ScheduleWins gained or lost from this team’s schedule versus a balanced one. Positive means an easier schedule.
- +0.2 wins8th-easiest
- Rotation ageAverage age of the rotation, weighted by estimated minutes. Players expected to play more count more.
- 29.5Veteran-heavyAt least 35% of estimated minutes go to players 32 or older, or 15% to players 35 or older.