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Cling Kong
When I was looking at a list of potential ‘most improved player’ candidates, I stumbled across a season that’s being overlooked.
2026–27 forecast · Updated
The best publicly available win projections
Projected wins and playoff odds for every NBA team.
RangeRange of outcomesEvery simulated season for this team. The bright middle is where 80% of seasons land; the dot is the projection.ProjectionThe dot marks the projected wins.Pick a team for its outlook
Tap a team for its outlook#Projected finish across the league, ordered by projected wins.TeamClick a team to open its full outlook: odds, range of outcomes, team profile and rotation.WinsProjected regular-season wins, adding up each game’s win chance across the full 82-game schedule.±SDHow far a typical season lands from the projection, in wins (one standard deviation). Bigger means a wider range.PlayoffsChance to reach the 16-team playoffs, directly or through the simulated play-in.
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 61.1 projected wins, plus or minus 6.6; net rating +9.3 points per game; middle 80% 52 to 69 wins; >99% playoff odds
- Boston Celtics: 56.8 projected wins, plus or minus 6.7; net rating +7.1 points per game; middle 80% 48 to 65 wins; 98% playoff odds
- San Antonio Spurs: 54.7 projected wins, plus or minus 7.1; net rating +6.1 points per game; middle 80% 45 to 63 wins; 97% playoff odds
- Houston Rockets: 52.7 projected wins, plus or minus 7.2; net rating +5.1 points per game; middle 80% 43 to 61 wins; 96% playoff odds
- Toronto Raptors: 47.2 projected wins, plus or minus 7.5; net rating +2.7 points per game; middle 80% 37 to 57 wins; 81% playoff odds
- Detroit Pistons: 45.8 projected wins, plus or minus 7.5; net rating +2.1 points per game; middle 80% 36 to 55 wins; 77% playoff odds
- New York Knicks: 45.6 projected wins, plus or minus 7.5; net rating +2.0 points per game; middle 80% 36 to 55 wins; 76% playoff odds
- Denver Nuggets: 45.4 projected wins, plus or minus 8.1; net rating +1.9 points per game; middle 80% 35 to 55 wins; 76% playoff odds
- Portland Trail Blazers: 44.7 projected wins, plus or minus 8.2; net rating +1.6 points per game; middle 80% 34 to 55 wins; 74% playoff odds
- Cleveland Cavaliers: 44.0 projected wins, plus or minus 7.8; net rating +1.3 points per game; middle 80% 34 to 54 wins; 69% playoff odds
- Philadelphia 76ers: 42.9 projected wins, plus or minus 7.6; net rating +0.8 points per game; middle 80% 33 to 52 wins; 63% playoff odds
- Orlando Magic: 42.5 projected wins, plus or minus 8.1; net rating +0.7 points per game; middle 80% 32 to 53 wins; 62% playoff odds
- Minnesota Timberwolves: 42.1 projected wins, plus or minus 7.4; net rating +0.5 points per game; middle 80% 33 to 52 wins; 66% playoff odds
- Atlanta Hawks: 42.1 projected wins, plus or minus 7.4; net rating +0.5 points per game; middle 80% 32 to 52 wins; 60% playoff odds
- Golden State Warriors: 41.5 projected wins, plus or minus 7.4; net rating +0.2 points per game; middle 80% 32 to 51 wins; 62% playoff odds
- Miami Heat: 41.2 projected wins, plus or minus 7.6; net rating +0.1 points per game; middle 80% 31 to 51 wins; 56% playoff odds
- Indiana Pacers: 41.0 projected wins, plus or minus 7.6; net rating 0.0 points per game; middle 80% 31 to 51 wins; 55% playoff odds
- Los Angeles Lakers: 40.3 projected wins, plus or minus 7.8; net rating −0.3 points per game; middle 80% 30 to 50 wins; 54% playoff odds
- Charlotte Hornets: 40.2 projected wins, plus or minus 7.5; net rating −0.4 points per game; middle 80% 30 to 50 wins; 51% playoff odds
- Phoenix Suns: 37.3 projected wins, plus or minus 7.3; net rating −1.6 points per game; middle 80% 28 to 47 wins; 40% playoff odds
- Dallas Mavericks: 36.5 projected wins, plus or minus 7.9; net rating −2.0 points per game; middle 80% 26 to 47 wins; 37% playoff odds
- Memphis Grizzlies: 34.7 projected wins, plus or minus 7.4; net rating −2.8 points per game; middle 80% 25 to 44 wins; 28% playoff odds
- Chicago Bulls: 34.4 projected wins, plus or minus 7.9; net rating −2.9 points per game; middle 80% 24 to 45 wins; 25% playoff odds
- LA Clippers: 33.1 projected wins, plus or minus 7.1; net rating −3.5 points per game; middle 80% 24 to 43 wins; 22% playoff odds
- Utah Jazz: 32.8 projected wins, plus or minus 7.4; net rating −3.6 points per game; middle 80% 24 to 43 wins; 21% playoff odds
- New Orleans Pelicans: 32.7 projected wins, plus or minus 7.8; net rating −3.7 points per game; middle 80% 23 to 43 wins; 22% playoff odds
- Milwaukee Bucks: 30.1 projected wins, plus or minus 7.6; net rating −4.8 points per game; middle 80% 21 to 40 wins; 11% playoff odds
- Washington Wizards: 29.8 projected wins, plus or minus 7.2; net rating −5.0 points per game; middle 80% 21 to 39 wins; 10% playoff odds
- Brooklyn Nets: 29.1 projected wins, plus or minus 7.0; net rating −5.3 points per game; middle 80% 21 to 38 wins; 7% playoff odds
- Sacramento Kings: 27.7 projected wins, plus or minus 6.8; net rating −6.0 points per game; middle 80% 20 to 37 wins; 7% playoff odds
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I am an expert at games. Poker in my 20s, DFS in my 30s, and along the way a top 10 player in the world at a bunch of obscure games you’ve probably never heard of.
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